Continuing the October downturn, China Heavy-Duty Truck sales of heavy-duty trucks fell 12.24% month-on-month in November. The short-term competitive advantage brought by EGR technology is no longer able to resist the substantial pressure on the heavy truck industry due to the lack of downstream demand caused by the downturn in the real economy.
China National Heavy Duty Truck Co., Ltd. released its sales report on December 13. The company produced and sold 2,420 heavy trucks and 2,740 heavy trucks in November 2008. In January-November 2008, it produced and sold 73,277 and 75,281 vehicles, an increase of 2.42% year-on-year, respectively. 18.23%. In addition, the Group sold 105,300 heavy trucks in January-November, an increase of 12.25% year-on-year.
The company's sales in November fell 12.24% from the previous month in October, a decrease of less than October. From the current point of view, although the company's "electrically controlled inline pump + EGR technology" with its cost advantage in the competition with the high pressure common rail technology route has been recognized in the industry has been recognized, the company's sales growth from January to November 18.23% also It is much higher than the 12.95% growth rate of the truck industry. However, the rapid slowdown of the real economy has depressed the demand for heavy truck products that belong to the attributes of production materials.
The heavy truck industry has a strong correlation with real economic development and GDP growth. At the same time, it coincides with the implementation of the country's three emission standards in the second half of the year. Therefore, it is inevitable that the sales of the industry will become sluggish under the dual effect of economic slowdown. The company's sales in November fell in comparison to the previous month. In fact, the company experienced the biggest decline in sales in a single month since 2008 in October. The reason for this is the sensitivity of the heavy-duty truck industry to macroeconomics. Specifically, the demand for logistics vehicles used in mines has been greatly reduced since October, and the demand for coal for energy has also fallen sharply. At the same time, projects related to real estate have also been reduced. The continued sluggishness of the vehicle and the combined effect of the heavy truck demand have drastically reduced. Given that the above fundamental factors are unlikely to change in the short term, it is expected that the sales trend will continue throughout the fourth quarter.
At present, the market expects Sinotruk's "electronically controlled inline pump + EGR" technology to have a higher advantage than other competitors in the industry. Because the company currently produces both EGR-equipped models and models equipped with high-pressure common-rail systems, both of them can meet the national III emission standards, while the EGR models have better fuel economy and oil adaptation than the EGR models. The characteristics of good sex, especially the average price advantage of RMB 1-20000 per vehicle, have promoted the EGR technology to achieve a temporary lead in the current state-to-state route dispute. Among the entire vehicles sold by China National Heavy Duty Truck in the third quarter, More than 70% are equipped with EGR models. At present, only China National Heavy Duty Trucks has EGR technology and energy production in China, and competitors such as Weichai Power (000338:31.93, -1.07, -3.24%) have achieved the fastest production volume of EGR models at the end of the year. However, despite the higher certainty of China National Heavy Duty Truck Group's leading position in the competition with EGR technology and further expansion of market share in the fourth quarter, its sales volume will undoubtedly be subject to the overall downturn of the industry.
China National Heavy Duty Truck's gross profit margin in the third quarter was 6.56%, a decrease of 4.26 percentage points from the same period of 2007, and the decline rate exceeded the market consensus. Part of the reason is that the deferral of the contract causes the price fall of steel products to be unable to be reflected in the third quarter cost. The more important reason is that the price reduction of products and the increase of rebates for dealers lead to higher promotion costs, which indicates that the company’s demand for the heavy truck market has declined. It is expected to increase inventory processing efforts.
In the short term, the decline in investment in fixed assets, coal mining, and the volume of road freight will all have a profound impact on demand for heavy trucks in the next two to three quarters. The industry is currently in an accelerated decline. However, in the medium to long term, the mid- to long-term development trend of the heavy truck industry is mainly influenced by such factors as the modernization of logistics, the increase in mileage of highways, and the growth rate of investment in fixed assets, including the toll-by-weight policy for roads. China National Heavy Duty Truck has basically established its leading position in the heavy-duty truck industry. The company continues to innovate to respond to changes in the truck market structure and has strong ability to withstand fluctuations and risks in the industry. Therefore, despite short-term concerns, long-term development is still worthwhile. Look good.
According to the three quarterly reports, the company’s operating income from January to September totaled 17.123 billion yuan, an increase of 32.63% year-on-year; net profit was 490 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.12%; and earnings per share for the first three quarters were 1.17 yuan.
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