"How long will the financial crisis last, and how will it go?"
“In the financial crisis, what are the opportunities for the parts and components companies with large export volumes? Where are the opportunities?â€
"The host plant's new product technology content is getting higher and higher and the company's new product development capability is poor. Will this become an obstacle to the further development of the company?"
“Foreign markets have increasingly stringent requirements for environmental protection. With the increase in exports of self-owned brand vehicles year after year, how will the parts and components supplier face?â€
"Is there an opportunity for small and medium-sized component suppliers to dock with international big groups?"
......
In October 2008, at the Seventh China Automotive Electronics and Electric Appliances Summit Forum, nearly 150 parts suppliers were worried about such topics. Experts from the industry associations, professional colleges and other industries participated in this discussion.
"The decline in growth rate is not a good thing."
Dong Jianping, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, believes that due to the tightening of national financial policies and the decline in the growth rate of industrial enterprises, the automobile industry is facing a grim situation. From January to August, the growth rate of production and sales slowed down significantly, and there was a negative growth in August. The drop in demand from foreign markets has had a greater impact on China’s exports of complete vehicles and components. However, from the analysis point of view, China's OEM parts market, which has experienced a rapid decline in exports of parts and components, has been affected by joint ventures and foreign-funded enterprises. The impact of the after-sales market is not great, which is determined by the large amount of used cars in foreign countries. However, the impact of the domestic aftermarket will be more apparent next year. In fact, next year, the international financial crisis will further affect the real economy.
Dong Jianping mentioned that from another angle, it is not a bad thing to say that the growth rate has dropped. Enterprises can use this adjustment period, adjust their mentality, calm down, do more internal solidification work, improve management, strengthen research and development capabilities, improve internal strength, and wait for a new round of economic recovery.
"Export-oriented companies suffer limited impact"
In response to concerns about parts and components companies with exports as their main business, Tian Yushi, assistant to general manager of FAW Group, analyzed FAW's subsidiary Fuao Components.
After a period of development, Fuao Company expanded its business to the US market, and its products were mainly driven by transmission shafts. In the United States, the factory was purchased and parts of the transmission shaft were sent to the United States in the form of KD parts for assembly and delivery to the United States. With the reduction in production of the three major U.S. vehicles in the United States, their OEMs have not been affected even more due to the decrease in production enthusiasm due to cost reasons. At the same time, Fuao Company found that the reduction in the production of new cars further promoted the operation of old cars and the maintenance market increased. Chinese enterprises are more profitable in the US aftermarket. In this regard, Tian reminded Chinese companies that set up factories in the United States to persist at this time, which has played an important role in further stabilizing the market and tapping talents.
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“Only the Chinese market has more money to earnâ€
Senior analyst Jia Xinguang believes that the crisis "people only know that they have started, but no one can predict the end." The global automobile market has slumped, which is even worse for the already precarious automotive industry. It is estimated that the global auto sales this year will be 58.1 million, down 0.3%. This is the first time that global car sales have fallen in eight years.
In addition to the US, European, and Japanese automotive markets, the BRIC market is also turning cold. In the first half of the year, Russia’s sales volume reached 1.645 million units, a year-on-year increase of 41%, surpassing Germany’s first-half European auto sales championship. However, auto sales in August only increased by 6% year-on-year, far below the 22% in July. In 2007, nearly 50% of the cars in the Russian auto market were sold through auto loans. After this year's loan contraction, the auto market began to decline. In August, Brazil sold a total of 427,600 vehicles, an increase of 7.61% from 397,400 in the same month in 2007, but it was down 14% from the previous month. In August, the Indian passenger vehicle market sold 94,600 vehicles, a decrease of 4.3% year-on-year.
It is undeniable that the automotive industry is facing a serious crisis and has had an impact on the upstream industry. The iron and steel industry began to cut production from August; coal has built up in the port, prices have fallen, and power generation has fallen. The automaker began to adjust production plans in the second half of the year and parts orders decreased. The price of raw materials fell, but the parts and components market also fell. As a result, the automobile industry will emerge a new pattern. It is speculated that with the Porsche holding public, the market price of Toyota over Volkswagen will compete with Toyota. The three major US companies face restructuring. Japanese companies are in a better state, cars are popular, and new energy vehicles have new opportunities.
Compared to the decline in global auto production, only a deceleration of the Chinese car days is still relatively good. Although the target of 10 million vehicles in 2008 has been difficult to complete, but at least today, "we can also talk about 10 million vehicles, the Chinese market has become the main battlefield to determine the success or failure of auto giants," experts suggest that Chinese companies can not ignore the development of the Chinese market potential.
"China's auto industry needs to take advantage of big countries."
"The Chinese auto industry needs to take advantage of the great powers," said Zhu Jianming, deputy director of the China FAW Technology Center and director of the Wuxi Oil Pump and Grease Institute. The reason is: First of all, China has a market advantage. The Chinese market is large enough to support domestic auto companies to form a scale advantage. The level of domestic demand is complex enough to support the survival and development of enterprises at all levels.
Second, China has the advantage of low cost. As the "economic output" of the Chinese auto industry is lower than that of its foreign counterparts, the expansion path of the Chinese auto industry is a relatively labor-intensive expansion route.
Comparing the capital preservation points of developed country companies, domestic joint ventures, and domestic national enterprises, it is easy to see that in developed countries, the scale expansion of auto companies is a capital-intensive expansion route; while the scale expansion of domestic auto companies is Relatively labor-intensive expansion routes.
The scale of economic production of foreign car companies to reach 50 to 1 million, the scale of economic production of foreign-owned car companies in China is 200,000 to 500,000, while the national economy of China's national car production scale is 10 to 200,000 vehicles. Low-volume production companies use relatively labor-intensive production methods, and economies of scale produce relatively small quantities, and it is easy to reach economic scale values. By increasing capital investment, the iso-production curve will shift away from the original point, and enter the area with a higher yield isokinetic curve. The Chinese car industry can also gradually become a capital-intensive industry.
In addition, the difference in philosophy also brings new opportunities for Chinese cars. Director Zhu believes that the differences between East and West in culture and national conditions have led to a very different choice: Western companies use the most advanced production lines to complete the simplest manual actions, and we use a large number of highly skilled skilled workers to cooperate with advanced manufacturing. Equipment, reduce costs, and more adapt to the Chinese market's multi-level, diversified, multi-dimension, differentiated demand characteristics.
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"Hybrid Power Drives New Parts Industry Development"
Professor Yin Chengliang of Shanghai Jiaotong University who just returned from the United States Felt the pressure of the financial crisis even more deeply. The three major U.S. capitals will begin to transfer traditional car R&D to China at the same time as they invest in compression. They will use U.S. government funding to develop new energy vehicles in their home countries. As a result, Prof. Yin proposes that the traditional car industry will experience great challenges, but New energy vehicles will also become new opportunities for parts and components companies.
Professor Yin's emphasis is that Chinese companies must fully recognize this point when governments and automobile giants have adopted new energy vehicles as their main future direction in the future. He pointed out that pure electric vehicles are certainly the ultimate solution, but they have technological continuity compared with traditional vehicles, and they have technological expansion in the future development of vehicles, minimize the construction of infrastructure, and have a combination of good energy-saving and environmental performance. Technology is the bridge linking traditional vehicles with future vehicle technologies. Currently, hybrid technology has received strong support from the Chinese government, including support for vehicle system technology, battery technology, and motor technology. It has now crossed the start-up phase and has begun to mature.
In the process of hybrid technology and industrialization, with the construction of infrastructure, PLUG IN technology can be used as a transitional technology between hybrid and pure electric technologies. Experts predict that in China, PLUG-IN electric vehicles will be promoted and promoted around 2010, and they will be applied on a scale from 2012 to 2013. If the oil price climbs to RMB7.00/L or so, PLUG IN technology will be larger. The market; fuel tax reform will shorten the industrialization schedule. Experts remind that the cost control measures of related battery companies are worthy of attention.
Affected by this trend, the automotive electrical industry is bringing electrotechnical workers with skilled workers to cooperate with advanced manufacturing equipment to reduce costs and adapt to the multi-level, diversified, and multi-differentiated requirements of the Chinese market. Automotive motor industry in the electric attachment system (including electric steering system, electric air conditioning, electric vacuum pump, electric air compressor, electric oil pump, electric water pump, controllable electric fan), 14V start-up integrated motor, BSG, ISG, efficient drive Motors and other opportunities.
"Indigenous Innovation" and "Key Components"
The experience of Wuxi Oil Pump Meander Institute’s independent innovation in winning the right to speak made Director Zhu Jianming a focus of the conference. However, Director Zhu believes that the process of independent innovation and new product development by Chinese parts and components companies is difficult to rush to achieve. It is necessary to make an objective assessment based on company size and competitiveness before deciding what to do. Director Zhu divided the products developed by the company into tactical products and strategic products. In front of the production and sales of tactical products, five years later to seize the market is a strategic product. Less competitive enterprises "should still focus on the immediate issues."
When CAB Dong Jianping and FAW Tianyu proposed that Chinese companies should be cautious about “expansion,†they could target foreign SMEs to purchase technology and experimental production equipment, dig talents, and form their own core technologies through independent innovation. This is undoubtedly an opportunity.
Professor Chen Hui of Tongji University believes that only by guiding the market and guiding customer needs rather than cater to needs can we lead to the lead. In his speech on “What Can the Electronics of Automotive Steering System Give Us?â€, China’s spare parts companies should focus on the development of key EPS components and promote brushless, high-powered and integrated motors; Corporate-based government-industry-research integration and inter-enterprise integration promote efficient use of resources, accelerate technological integration and advancement, and bring into play the cost-effective effects of scale production, and increase the market competitiveness of EPS's own brands; at relevant associations, associations, or standardization committees. Under the organization, give full play to the main role of the leading enterprises, unite all parties to speed up the improvement and formulation of the EPS standard; carry out research on the electrohydraulic power steering system to improve the handling stability of commercial vehicles; deepen the active steering and integrated control of the vehicle The study laid the foundation for the birth of a new generation of electronic products for steering.
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"The environment sometimes depends on ourselves."
Is the financial crisis the chief culprit in the export of Chinese products? According to Ma Baofa, general manager of Shanghai Daily-YouJie Automotive Electric Co., Ltd., the contempt for “honesty†of a few Chinese companies is also the main cause of the poor export environment. Similar "Sanlu milk powder" incident not only affects the survival of enterprises, but also has a major impact on the reputation of the entire industry and country. Enterprises should learn from them.
Ma Baofa general manager put forward two concepts of "big quality" and "low quality". The difference between the two lies in whether the needs of customers will be cut into all aspects of business operations, such as strategic planning, product development, production management, quality control, and after-sales services. And other aspects of business operations. The development strategy of the company must be formulated with the customer as the focus of attention, and the market and customer needs are taken as an important input to the company's development strategy. Configure resources around customer needs and clarify the direction of product development.
The use of breakthrough management and implementation of sustainable corporate development is another development concept of Ma Baofa. He believes that only in this way can the market adapt to the market from the very beginning, and lead the market for sustainable development.
"The company's lifeline is cash flow."
The expert Jia Xinguang specifically reminded the company that the lifeline of the company is capital flow, and reducing cost is the most important development strategy. Ma Baofa also believes that, from the perspective of efficiency, the benign operation of the enterprise focuses first on cash flow, followed by profit, and once again on speed. In other words, we must not be able to cause the company's related financial imbalances due to the speed of development and lurk under the seeds of the crisis. The so-called "decision-making mistakes", its outstanding problem is that the company's capital chain breaks, so that companies lose the ability to continue production. In this sense, it is very important for companies to achieve virtuous circle and development that they need good cash flow as support.
Dong Jianping, Deputy Secretary General of China Automobile Industry Association:
The automobile is a very strong pulling industry and plays an important role in stimulating domestic demand. The government should encourage rather than limit, including the introduction of tax cuts for small and medium-sized parts and components companies, and financial support for those companies that have a market for them to help them tide over the difficulties.
Tian Yushi, Assistant General Manager of China FAW Group Corporation:
In the 1990s, Chrysler’s president, Eaton, said that in the past 100 years, cars had changed the world and in the next 100 years the world changed cars. We must fully prepare for new energy vehicles. Once changed, it will be sweeping and unstoppable.
Zhu Jianming, Vice Chairman of China Internal Combustion Engine Industry Association:
Prior to joining the WTO, the domestic automotive community discussed the issue of demise and survival, and today, just a few years later, it is the development of the automobile industry. This is a very clear qualitative change. I think that as long as China's auto industry has independent innovation capability and has its own brand, it will surely be like the current household appliances, textile industry, and iron and steel industry for ten to twenty years, and it will produce large international companies and compete with the world's automobile giants.
Director of Automotive Engineering Research Institute, Shanghai Jiaotong University Yin Chengliang:
The traditional automotive industry faces great challenges.
Tongji University Professor Chen Hui:
Opportunities for moving to electronic components companies include sensors, electromechanical actuators, ECUs, and embedded system software.
Shanghai Daily--Ma Baofa, General Manager of YouJie Automotive Co., Ltd.:
Avoiding homogenization, researching benchmarking companies, researching information, researching markets, and researching politics are the key to the development of parts and components companies.
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Expert Tips:
1. It is difficult for self-owned branded parts and components companies to enter the supporting system for mature models, and they must independently develop their own products to have the opportunity.
2. While adhering to the Chinese market, we must take the initiative. The original after-sales market, looking for opportunities to enter the OEM market; the original OEM, but also to enter the aftermarket.
3, the joint reorganization of parts and components industry, access to scale advantages.
4. Safety, energy saving, environmental protection, and new energy are the directions of development.
5, the company's lifeline is the capital flow.
6. Reducing costs is the most important development strategy.
7, the patent is like an atomic bomb, in front of real competitors can only play a deterrent role.
8, as long as they have the ability to independently innovate, they can easily avoid the obstacles set by others and generate new patents to form their own technological advantages.
9. It is not technology but the confidence that China's auto industry lacks most.
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