Due to unpredictable market prospects for raw materials and derivatives of acrylonitrile and caprolactam, Asian acrylonitrile and caprolactam producers are generally concerned about market trends in the third quarter.
Analysts pointed out that the price of caprolactam fell by 350-400 U.S. dollars per ton in the past three months, but its profitability was better than that of acrylonitrile. Although the price of benzene raw materials rose by nearly 80 U.S. dollars per ton in early July, the difference between caprolactam and benzene remained at 1200. USD/ton level. At the same time, the spread of acrylonitrile and propylene raw materials has been reduced to less than 500 US dollars / ton, much lower than the guaranteed profit of 750 US dollars / ton level. The price of propylene in Northeast Asia has risen to more than US$900/tonne (cost plus freight), which has increased by US$200 per ton compared to the beginning of June, while the spot price of acrylonitrile has dropped by US$50 to US$70 per ton, only US$1270 to US$1,320. / Ton (Cost and Freight).
If international crude oil prices remain at a high of US$60/tonne, propylene prices will continue to rise and may even push up to US$1,000/tonne (cost and freight, Northeast Asia), but no acrylonitrile producer can confirm that acrylonitrile prices will rise . Acrylonitrile fiber prices can not be determined. According to Southeast Asian producers, the key factor affecting the rise and fall in acrylonitrile fiber prices is the Chinese fiber market. At present, the price of China's acrylonitrile fiber has dropped from 1.90 to 1.95 USD/kg in the first quarter to 1.70 USD/kg (a delivery price). According to the analysis, the reason for the decline is the weakness of the polyester market.
Acrylonitrile producers speculated that the bottom of the price will be built in July, and that the price resistance from buyers will weaken in the coming months. The reason for optimism is that the price of ABS and propylene will rise and the demand for acrylonitrile will increase. Another reason for the tight market supply was the maintenance of a series of devices: South Korea's Taekwang Industrial Company suspended acrylonitrile units for two to three weeks in July; Asahi Kasei’s Korean subsidiary Tongsuh’s facilities with a capacity of 270,000 tons/year will be In October, it will be overhauled for one month; Asahi Kasei Corporation’s 150,000-ton/year installation will also be suspended for maintenance for one month in October.
Caprolactam producers also worked hard to boost prices in the third quarter. Nanjing DSM's 70,000-ton/year caprolactam plant is still being repaired, and its production capacity will reach 140,000 tons/year when it resumes construction in September. In the second half of the year, China's new series of nylon 6 production capacity will absorb the newly increased caprolactam production capacity, so there will be no excess supply in the market.
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