Since 2004, the "high fever" of international oil prices has barely hit the brakes, and it has soared last week: On August 10th, the average price of 11 crude oil baskets monitored by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) exceeded US$57 per barrel. Historical highs; New York market crude oil futures prices also hit a record, and on August 12th it was a breakthrough of 67 US dollars.
The high international oil price will undoubtedly drive the continuous rise of domestic refined oil prices, and it will further affect the sensitive nerves of the domestic refined oil pricing system. Under the combined influence of high demand and international prices, the average price of China's petroleum products rose by 9.25% over the previous year in 2004. The price increase further accelerated in 2005, and the average price of domestic refined oil in the first half of August (refers to 18 major national The average total price of gasoline, diesel, fuel oil and other major varieties in the city, the same as the following, rose 21% from the beginning of the year and rose 20.5% from the same period of last year.
The price of refined oil products has gone upside down Although China's oil market prices have continued to rise, end users such as transportation have complained that it is unbearable, but the price increase of refined oil products in China is still lower than the international price level and is also lower than the level of rising crude oil prices. Statistics show that last year, crude oil in the international market rose by an average of 28% or more, while domestic gasoline prices only increased by 15.7%; the average price of international crude oil rose more than 40% in the first 7 months of this year, while the average price of gasoline in the domestic market rose only. 10%, diesel rose 13.6%, the average price of fuel oil already priced by the market has only risen 26.3%.
China's current refined oil pricing mechanism is based on Singapore, Rotterdam and New York to determine the price of domestic refined oil, when the weighted average price of refined oil in the three places has changed more than 8%, that is, adjust the price of domestic refined oil. However, in fact, the NDRC needs to consider the non-market-oriented factors such as the affordability of various aspects of society and the guarantee of steady and coordinated economic development. Therefore, the actual adjustment range cannot be put in place, and it also lags behind in terms of time. This has caused the market to have a phenomenon that the wholesale price of refined oil is higher than the retail price and the price of finished oil is lower than the price of crude oil.
The pricing mechanism must speed up the reform of the current drawbacks of China's current refined oil pricing mechanism, resulting in a lack of enthusiasm for refinery production, domestic resource outflows, difficulty in securing supply of resources, and opportunities for social operators to take a series of issues. Therefore, accelerating the pace of adjusting and reforming the refined oil pricing mechanism is an urgent problem to be solved under the pressure of high oil prices.
In less than half a year since March this year, China has made five adjustments to refined oil, which was only adjusted three times last year. This shows that China's refined oil prices have gradually changed from the original little movement and slow movement to frequent adjustments. It also indicates that the reform of the oil price formation mechanism in China is expected to commence.
From the perspective of petroleum processing companies, it is hoped that the pricing mechanism will be truly market-oriented, and that domestic refined oil prices will be fully in line with international oil prices. However, judging from the affordability of the domestic market, it is currently impossible to achieve complete liberalization.
To this end, the National Development and Reform Commission recently held a special meeting in Beijing to discuss the reform of the pricing mechanism for oil (including crude oil, refined oil) and natural gas. Summarizing the opinions of authoritative departments and experts, we believe that the reform of the oil pricing mechanism should be based on the principles of “adjustment, tightness, and relaxation, and steadily progressâ€. The direction of reform should be “to change the lagging price into a timely one, establish a mechanism for the formation of crude oil and refined oil prices that are compatible with changes in the international market, reflect the characteristics of supply and demand in the domestic market, and help ensure the stability of domestic oil supplyâ€. In the near future, we should start with the adjustment frequency, that is, gradually shift from “lagging pricing†to “real-time pricing†to move toward more reasonable market rules.
The price will remain high in the near future. Although domestic refined oil prices have increased significantly after the adjustment on July 23, compared with the continuously rising international market, the difference between refined oil prices and crude oil prices is still around 700 yuan per ton. . On the one hand, this kind of price upside-down has caused great losses to domestic oil refining companies. Refineries have lost more and more losses, which has affected the enthusiasm of production. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to June of this year, the oil processing enterprises changed from a profit of 13.67 billion yuan in the first half of last year to a loss of 6.09 billion yuan. On the other hand, it has led to the outflow of domestic oil products to foreign countries, which has exacerbated the tightness of domestic product oil supply and brought about oil security risks in China. According to the statistics provided by the State General Administration of Customs, China's refined oil exports from January to July totaled 8.82 million tons, an increase of 45.5%, of which gasoline output was 3.91 million tons, an increase of 30.9%, and diesel exports were 750,000 tons, an increase of 1 .53 times. At the same time, refined oil imports have fallen sharply. From January to July, the import of refined oil was 18.12 million tons, which changed from a growth of 44.5% in the same period of last year to a decrease of 20%. These two reasons have undoubtedly aggravated the tightness of the supply of refined oil products in the domestic market, resulting in the emergence of tight oil products of varying degrees in parts of Guangdong, Zhejiang, and North China.
In the face of the current situation, the author believes that it is the government’s first choice to adjust domestic refined oil prices in a timely manner in accordance with the market mechanism and reduce the level of domestic and foreign price differences in order to ease the pressure on all parties. Of course, this kind of adjustment must be gradual. The government should consider the affordability of various parties and also propose corresponding supporting measures. Therefore, in the near future, domestic gasoline, diesel and other refined oil prices may also be raised at high levels.
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