In the past two years, due to the rise in crude oil prices and the increase in downstream demand, and with the arrival of a new round of economic cycle in the global chemical industry, chemical markets at home and abroad have fully recovered. The price of chemical products has risen since last year. There are also a large number of large-scale domestic companies. Very large chemical projects have been launched or established. However, due to the huge scale of many projects, the demand for raw materials has also rapidly increased. This situation is worth pondering.
It is undeniable that many self-sufficiency rates for domestic chemical products are generally insufficient. Especially under the influence of high market prices since last year, many chemical products have created investment booms such as methanol, polyester, polyvinyl chloride, PTA, etc. There has been a situation of overheated investment. For example, calcium carbide, in recent years, the annual production capacity of calcium carbide in China has rapidly expanded to more than 17 million tons, and the annual output is even less than half of the production capacity, the degree of overheating is evident. The main reason is that in addition to the limited growth in market demand, the domestic power resources are tight and small. The major pollution of calcium carbide production is also an important aspect. From the perspective of market demand, the future market space for some products is still very large, but the supply of raw materials due to the large scale of the project has also become a question. For example, in the PVC project in the eastern region, China’s petrochemical market has almost no supply of its raw materials, ethylene or vinyl chloride. If it depends on imported raw materials, there will be almost no profit at all when crude oil prices remain high; Ethylene or vinyl chloride, and regardless of whether the investment is generally acceptable to the enterprise, its production of raw materials --- oil and gas resources in China itself is very scarce, PVC raw materials for domestic production in the actual situation of the current domestic operability is very poor. Therefore, for those chemicals projects that are at one million tons, even if the market is promising, we must consider raw materials, resources, and other aspects.
Most of the petrochemical and coal chemical industries have huge investments. The number of projects that have invested billions or even billions of dollars since the beginning of last year is not uncommon. China is limited by resources and energy, and many chemical products are not clearly competitive internationally if they are blind. With development, by 2010 many industries may experience idle production capacity. Moreover, in the rapid development of the industry and the new competitive landscape is difficult to form on a temporary basis, it will inevitably lead to excessive competition and result in the loss of the country and the entire industry. In view of this, countries and companies should consider the new investment in chemical projects more carefully, analyze the market farther and more comprehensively, take more consideration of resource factors, and truly proceed from the sustainable development of the industry, from the source of the project. Avoid the formation of "no rice".
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