The high level of consolidation in the late stage of the Lanzhou charcoal market

China Drying Network News "Currently, the tax-inclusive price of blue carbon has reached 930 yuan (ton price, the same below), which is the second highest point in the year, up by 50 yuan from a month ago." August 24th, Shaanxi Coal Chemical Industry Group Chairman Shenmu Energy Development Co., Ltd. Lei Quanku said to reporters. He analyzed that due to the impact of the three major factors, the recent charcoal market has changed slightly in the early period and has rebounded moderately.

The first is the increase in demand. In order to curb the economic downturn, the western region has recently introduced economic stimulus policies to encourage companies to start production. For example, in Inner Mongolia, subsidies for electricity use by some calcium carbide enterprises in some coalition enterprises are 0.03 yuan/kWh, and multilateral trading tariff policies are applied to large-scale chlor-alkali enterprises; Shaanxi Yulin has given subsidies of 0.05 yuan/kWh to electricity companies such as calcium carbide, chlor-alkali, ferroalloys, and electrolytic aluminum. These measures will help companies such as calcium carbide, chlor-alkali, etc. to reduce costs, increase operating rates, and increase calcium carbide consumption. As the main raw material for the production of calcium carbide, the increase in the demand for calcium carbide and the increase in the operating rate of enterprises will inevitably increase the demand for blue carbon and push up the price of blue carbon.

The second is raw material prices. Since May, China's coal market has changed slightly from the previous period. The price has dropped sharply, the demand has dropped significantly, and coal companies' inventories have continued to climb, leading to a continuous increase in production cuts and production cuts. At present, 2/3 coal enterprises in Inner Mongolia have stopped production, and 50% of the mines in Yulin, Shaanxi Province have ceased production. There are also a few production and production cut-off enterprises in other major coal production areas across the country. The sudden decrease in coal production has tightened the supply of the tightly balanced lump coal market and prices have risen. According to the production of 1 ton of blue carbon based on 1.6 tons of lump coal, the price of lump coal will increase by 50 yuan, and the cost of blue coal will increase by 80 to 100 yuan. The current lump coal price is about 60 yuan higher than that in July, and the corresponding increase in the cost of blue carbon is more than 100 yuan, which helps boost the price of blue carbon.

The third is tight supply. As the economic growth rate of China continued to decline from January to August, the price trend of related products is the same as that of the national economy, and the prices of coal and blue coal have both dropped significantly. Most of the blue carbon companies chose to cut production and stop production. At present, more than half of the enterprises in Shenmu and Fugu, which account for more than 40% of the country's total capacity of blue carbon, have stopped production. The operating rate of the country's blue carbon equipment is also only 40%, and the production of blue carbon has been significantly reduced. At the same time, downstream demand has been magnified under the stimulus of policies, which eventually led to a tighter price increase in the local market.

However, at the same time, the reporter learned that the Lanzhou Charcoal Market does not have the energy to continue to attack. Considering comprehensively, there is a high possibility of high consolidation in the later period.

First of all, the downward pressure on China's economy is still relatively large. Investment in real estate, roads, railways, bridges, urban pipe network construction and other areas are difficult to increase substantially, and the demand for PVC pipes and profiles is very limited. The contradiction of oversupply in the PVC market cannot be fundamentally changed, the company's loss-making side will continue to expand, and the industry's operating rate is still insufficient. It is difficult to effectively amplify the demand for calcium carbide, which in turn affects the demand for blue carbon in this area and drags down the price of blue carbon. .

Second, due to factors such as excessive coal production capacity, narrowing growth in social coal consumption, and the impact of imported coal, the latter coal prices will continue to decline. If the price of blue charcoal continues to rise, and the cost-effectiveness of anthracite or coking coal will be lost, some companies will choose anthracite and metallurgical coke instead of blue carbon to reduce the demand for blue carbon and make the blue carbon market from tight supply to oversupply. Suppress prices down.

Again, the end of the stimulus policy, the loss of good support for the local market. Although western regions such as Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, etc. have recently introduced economic stimulus policies, the preferential use of electricity for large energy consumers is temporary and phased. For example, the electricity price subsidy policy for calcium carbide enterprises in Inner Mongolia will end in September; the electricity price subsidy policy for companies such as calcium carbide, chlor-alkali, etc. in Yulin area is only 2 months. If there is no continuous stimulus policy at that time, the operating rate of the relevant industries will inevitably drop suddenly, so that the use of blue carbon will be substantially reduced and the price will not rise.

Finally, overcapacity makes it difficult for prices to continue to rise. The annual production capacity of China's blue carbon is about 65 million tons, but the actual demand is only 25 million tons per year, and the production capacity is seriously excessive. As a result, the vast majority of the blue carbon companies have long-term low profit or even losses. In spite of this, due to the considerable benefits of medium-temperature coal tar hydrogenation for clean fuel oil projects, and with its favorable energy conservation and environmental protection benefits encouraged by policies and the government, more and more companies are encouraged to build large-scale blue-carbon projects (to obtain coal tar ), has exacerbated the contradiction of blue carbon overcapacity. If the price of later-staged carbon continues to rise, reaching the break-even point for most companies, the current production cut-off will inevitably resume production, increase market supply, and dampen the price of blue carbon.

Lei entire library forecast: On the one hand, due to the high price of raw materials lump tight prices, there is a strong support for the price of blue carbon; the other hand, a serious overcapacity, demand may shrink shrinking prices of carbon. Therefore, there is a high possibility that the price of the later-staged carbon is consolidating at the current price. In the long run, the situation of the enterprises will also be clearly differentiated. Only those enterprises that have reliable coal resources and have realized resource efficient utilization of coal tar and raw gas to form a coal-coke-electricity-integration circular economy chain, To be profitable. However, regardless of the size and size of the independent blue carbon companies, the days will be more and more difficult and even eliminated.

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