Japan excavator market changes have a great impact on China

Analysis of the Impact of the Japan Earthquake on China's Construction Machinery Industry 1. The number of used excavators imported from Japan will be greatly reduced, and domestic excavator brands will have a good opportunity to expand the market and increase their market share. In recent years, China’s excavator imports accounted for about 50% of the total imports of construction machinery, of which used excavator imports accounted for more than 90% of the total amount of excavator imports, accounting for more than 35% of the total domestic sales, imports more than the national The total amount of brand excavators, and imported second-hand excavators are mainly Japanese brands. The disaster relief and post-disaster reconstruction work after this earthquake will cause a huge increase in the demand for excavators in Japan. If the production capacity cannot be increased in the short term, it will inevitably affect the replacement speed of excavators, and thus affect the number of second-hand excavators exported to China. , China's domestic excavator will obtain import substitution space, the localization rate is expected to quickly rise from 20% to more than 30%.

Second, it may affect the purchase of hydraulic excavator parts and chassis of pump trucks of some companies, but it is currently estimated that the impact will not be significant.

1. In terms of excavator hydraulic components, Japan Kawasaki Seiki is the largest supplier in the world and in China. Kawasaki is more than 500 kilometers away from the epicenter and is not affected by the quake. It is not clear whether Kawasaki has an outside factory in the earthquake area. Considering that Japan's post-earthquake power-restriction policy may affect Kawasaki production capacity, Kawasaki may give priority to the supply of new hydraulic components for excavators in China, which may affect the supply of domestic excavator hydraulic components. However, the impact will not be great, because (1) domestic excavator manufacturers basically signed a 2011 purchase contract with Kawasaki in 2010; (2) Dr. Rexroth, as the second largest supplier of hydraulic components, has a faster production capacity; (3) ) South Korea's Dongming and the first hydraulic components may serve as an alternative to make up for the supply gap in Kawasaki.

2. In terms of pump chassis, Isuzu is one of the major imported brands, currently accounting for between 1/3 and 1/2. Isuzu is currently affected by the earthquake (the extent is unknown), but it is estimated that there is little impact on domestic pump trucks. (1) Mercedes-Benz and Volvo chassis can make up part of the supply, and (2) pump trucks can also use self-made chassis. Third, the follow-up may promote China's construction machinery exports to Japan, such as bulldozer cranes. In summary, the major advantages of the earthquake in the construction machinery industry outweighed the disadvantages, and Xujiong Machinery Co., Ltd., Shantui Stock Co., Ltd. and Sany Heavy Industry Co., Ltd. were particularly recommended.

Nuclear power equipment industry The nuclear power plant accident in Japan will cause people to pay more attention to the safety of nuclear power and may affect the construction of nuclear power in the country. We pay close attention to this and we anticipate that short-term nuclear power equipment companies such as China Heavy Duty, Double Heavy Duty, Jiangsu Shentong, and China Nuclear Technology will be disadvantageous. influences.