·The automobile industry staged the death racing capacity expansion

Into the overcapacity situation The auto industry has become the industry with the highest exposure rate at the March 15th meeting this year.
In 2014, the National Consumers Association accepted 619,415 consumer complaints, including 26,251 auto-related complaints, ranking third in the entire category of goods, second only to communications and apparel products. In the complaints against the car, the quality problem accounted for 10,230, and the contract and after-sales problems reached 6,104 and 4,111, respectively.
Behind the rise in auto quality complaints, competition in the auto industry has intensified year by year. The expansion of auto production capacity in previous years is dragging the auto industry into a quagmire of overcapacity.
Judging from the data released in recent years, China's auto industry has always been in a state of oversupply.
Statistics show that in 2012, the overall production capacity of China's passenger vehicles has reached 23.06 million units, and the capacity utilization rate is 66.39%. In 2013, China's automobile production capacity was 29.14 million units. The annual sales volume of automobiles was 22.11 million units, and the average capacity utilization rate was 84. %, of which the self-owned brand capacity utilization rate is only 65%, which is lower than the 70% safety line; at the end of 2014, the domestic automobile production capacity reached 25.86 million, and the capacity utilization rate was 76.34%.
As can be seen from the above data, China's auto industry's production capacity is the highest in 2013, with automobile production of nearly 30 million units and capacity utilization rate of 84%. However, in 2014, production capacity dropped by nearly 4 million units, and capacity utilization rate has decreased. 10%.
“In fact, the growth rate of the industry in 2014 has declined but it has remained at a good level. The passenger car industry and the macro economy are still far from each other and still maintain a good growth rate of around 10%.” Fan Yinxin, a researcher at China Research Institute, accepts “China” "Sankei Shimbun" reporter said in an interview.
Fan Yinxin analyzed that the automobile production capacity in 2015 may reach 40 million units, which is equivalent to nearly 15 million units of production in 2014, and the capacity utilization rate in 2014 was only 76.34%. So, in 2015, China’s automobile sales target is more than 46 million. The vehicle sold nearly 32.2 million units under the condition of 70% safety line utilization capacity.
Into the overcapacity situation Fan Yinxin analysis, planning the production capacity to release all potential production capacity, is not a one-time, and needs to increase year by year. And this gradual release of capacity does not necessarily become surplus at the beginning. And capacity utilization is not 100% in every company. Only when the automobile is overcapacity can the automobile market become a buyer's market, and the enterprise can truly pay attention to the needs and demands of consumers. Only overcapacity can make the competition between auto companies really start. This kind of real competition can make enterprises pay more attention to more important things beyond sales.
Li Bin, an analyst at the China Merchants Research Institute, said in an interview with the China Sankei Shimbun News that China's auto industry is highly market-oriented, and most of the current auto production capacity was built in the heyday of the auto industry development a few years ago. At the same time, China is a developing country and a populous country. Compared with developed countries, the number of family cars is still low, and the market space is still relatively large.
"But with the development of the automobile industry, it will inevitably enter a stage of low-speed and stable development. Under the market stimulus, the capacity expansion rate is higher than the industrial demand speed, and there will inevitably be overcapacity. This is also the excessive development of the industry's survival of the fittest in a certain period of time. Stage." Li Bin said.
“Overcapacity” is closely related to the economic development cycle. When economic growth is weak and consumer purchasing power is not strong, there will be excess capacity.
“The reason for the deeper level of China’s industrial surplus is that the government’s long-term excessive intervention in the market, coupled with the lack of understanding of the market’s operating rules, is too optimistic about market demand. As a result, when the economic development slows down, it is caught in a predicament of overcapacity.” Luo Gaozhan, manager of Shenzhen Siglo Investment Development Co., Ltd., was interviewed by reporters.
Declining profit growth With the development of China's industry, the speed of automobile production is getting faster and faster, and the number of cars produced in the automobile industry is increasing. The raw materials have also shown an upward trend in price. The mutual pressure between the two companies has also caused the prices of car companies to hit prices, resulting in a decline in profit growth and an increase in losses.
In addition, the reporter also learned that because the capacity utilization rate between automobiles is only about 70%, the capacity utilization rates of joint venture brands and independent brands are 98.36% and 49.48%, respectively. And 36%-40% of the cars on the market are self-produced, so the inventory pressure between cars is further increased.
“Automotive companies are continually expanding their vehicle construction projects and upgrading and expanding projects, which has led to an increase in the supply of automobiles. As a result, three types of competition have led to oversupply in the automotive market. Automobile sales in 2009 and 2010 are 30%-50 The high growth rate of % is a long-term optimistic estimate for the market, blindly expanding production capacity. After the completion of the project, the growth rate of production and sales in the automobile market has plummeted, so that overcapacity has caused the turmoil in the circulation field to be the main reason."
In fact, overcapacity in China's auto industry, in addition to the expansion of domestic auto companies, foreign investment companies also invest in China.
According to statistics, 7/10 of the world's highest profitable automakers are Chinese automakers. Hyundai Motor and Volkswagen's Audi all regard China as its largest market. Among the top ten high-profit automakers, only Fuji Heavy Industries has not built a factory in China. Foreign automakers are the most active participants in setting up factories in China. Hyundai, Renault and Jeep are all planning or have established factories in China.
The above data shows that the production capacity has further increased.
It is worth mentioning that the automobile industry has made a lot of achievements in contributing to the local government's GDP. As a result, there have been vicious investment competitions in automobile projects in many places, and some cities with large demand have increased their demand for purchases.
Luo Gaozhan told reporters that the current risk management of vehicle production planning is not considered. In the past few years, the demand for automobile production and sales was strong. In 2009, China's automobile production and sales increased by 48.3% and 46.2% respectively. In 2010, the output and sales increased by 32.4% year-on-year. Currently, the automobile industry has overcapacity. The enterprise capacity planning is too optimistic. The main point is that demand is slowing down.
According to the data, the growth rate of automobile production and sales after 2011 decreased by 0.8% and 2.5% respectively; in 2012, it was 4.6% and 4.3% respectively; in 2013, it rebounded, respectively, at 14.8% and 13.9%; 2014 Also slowed down to 7.3% and 6.9%. The slowdown in market demand has led to a low capacity utilization rate.
2 Survival of the fittest Survival of the fittest Since the “overcapacity” of the auto industry is already a fact, then the survival of the fittest after “overcapacity” has become an inevitable result.
Li Bin stressed that the "overcapacity" for the automotive industry, the most direct result is the survival of the fittest, a new round of industry elimination of reshuffle is inevitable, some strong brands will be stronger, the concentration of the domestic automotive industry will continue to improve, cars Market competition will gradually change from dozens of companies to more than a dozen or even ten.
“Overcapacity of automakers and optimistic estimates of the market have led to high auto inventory and price upside down. These have been evident in the auto market in 2014. If overcapacity and high inventory problems are delayed, then the car will be The price competition in the market will continue," Li Bin said. “Overcapacity” has both positive and negative effects. In the process of overcapacity, car companies will be aware of the drawbacks of some vicious competition, improve the way of competition, and innovate products to make healthy competition in the automotive industry and promote development.
Of course, the negative impact of the car's "overcapacity" is also inevitable. First, due to the increase in the number of cars, the increase in energy demand may lead to energy problems.
Fan Yinxin said that the cost of auto companies switching to other industries has become higher, restricting independent innovation. Most of China's auto companies have weak independent development capabilities, and they have to introduce technology and products passively and costly, resulting in overcapacity and overcapacity. Lead to vicious competition, affecting product quality and technological progress. In the state of overcapacity, in fact, we still inevitably think about the survival of domestic cars. The independent development capability of domestically produced vehicles is not strong, mainly relying on the introduction of technologies and products at high cost to produce automobiles, and does not have the core technology to control automobile production.
Under the situation of overcapacity, what will happen to the situation of domestically produced vehicles? "Automobile overcapacity" will definitely reduce the price of automobiles, which will further reduce the profit margin of domestically produced vehicles, further increase the inventory pressure, and survive pressure." Fan Yinxin said.
Li Bin also expressed his views on the living conditions of domestically produced cars. He believes that in the context of overcapacity, market competition is increasingly fierce, foreign and joint venture brand prices are being explored, accelerating the market layout of third- and fourth-tier cities, and domestic enterprises in the high-end auto market have long been in a weak position, and the living space in the low-end market has been Foreign brands are squeezed, and in the future, China's own brand cars will be forced to launch overseas strategies.
Another industry insider said that domestic auto brand companies are the most affected enterprises in the overcapacity crisis due to weak core competitive advantages such as technology research and development capabilities and brand appeal.
Since domestically produced vehicles are under tremendous pressure to survive under the “overcapacity” situation, how to face such a huge challenge will be a problem that has to be faced.
Survival of the fittest Luo Gaozhan told reporters that “insight of market demand, transformation and upgrading is an important way for enterprises to survive the crisis.”
In 2014, passenger cars drove the growth of the automobile industry, while the production and sales of commercial vehicles fell year-on-year. More commercial vehicle companies needed to transform into more demanding automotive segments. At the same time, the production and sales of new energy vehicles grew rapidly, up 3.5 times and 3.2 times respectively, which is also an important direction for the transformation and upgrading of enterprises.
Fan Yinxin put forward the following suggestions on the issue of China's auto overcapacity. First, the issue of automobile production capacity and mergers and acquisitions will be planned as a whole, which will increase the scale of enterprises, enhance their competitiveness, and increase their concentration.
Second, strict implementation of industrial market access standards, the governance of the "overcapacity of the car" industry must have a strategic vision, a global perspective, and the length of the combination. On the one hand, we must improve the threshold for entry, strictly control low-level redundant construction from the source; on the other hand, we must prevent the resurgence of old production capacity on the basis of improving the exit mechanism.
The third is to raise the threshold for investment access.
The fourth is to make full use of “overcapacity”, enhance the independent development capability of products, adhere to technological progress, promote the coordinated development of the automobile industry and energy, environment and transportation, and develop independent brand products.

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