Thoughts on China's Energy Sustainable Development Strategy Chen Heping, Cheng Zhifen 2 (1. China Huaneng Group Corporation Strategic Research Department, Beijing 100088; 2. Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150001, Heilongjiang) The goal is to strive for GDP to reach 2020 by 2020. It is quadrupled in the year. A new industrialization road with high technology content, good economic benefits, low resource consumption, low environmental pollution and full utilization of human resources advantages must place sustainable development in an important position to ensure China's basic modernization in the middle of this century. .
The 16th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed to concentrate on building a well-off society at a higher level that will benefit more than one billion people in the first two decades of this century, and basically achieve modernization by the middle of this century.
An extremely important goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way is to strive to quadruple GDP by 2020, based on optimizing the structure and improving efficiency. The goal of doubling the total agricultural output value of energy by 20 years ago has already been achieved ahead of schedule. This quadrupling will be achieved on the basis of a larger economic aggregate and more people, and the goal will be more ambitious. According to the requirements of coordinated development of economy, population, resources and environment, by 2020 and by the middle of this century, how much energy will China need to ensure quadrupling and basically modernization.
1 The reasonable consumption trend of energy in 2020 is 7%, while the average annual growth of energy consumption is only 3.9%, and the elasticity coefficient of energy consumption is 0... According to the GDP, the average annual energy saving rate in China is 5.3%. Consumption calculation, China's 20-year cumulative savings and less energy consumption of 1.15 billion tons of standard coal, the ratio of energy savings up to 2.533 billion tons of standard coal.
Deputy Minister, Senior Engineer.
In 2000, China consumed 1.30 billion tons of standard coal. If the GDP grew at an average annual rate of 7%, the energy consumption elasticity coefficient will still be calculated according to the average of 0.4 in the previous 20 years. The average annual growth rate of energy consumption is 2.8%. According to this development, China needs to consume 5.17 billion tons of standard coal per year in 2050. Experts from the Chinese Academy of Engineering predict that by the middle of this century, China's annual energy consumption should be controlled between 300-3.8 billion tons of standard coal. By then, the largest domestic energy supply will be about 3.2 billion tons of standard coal.
Note: The top curve shows the trend of national energy consumption according to the energy intensity of 1980; the middle curve shows the energy consumption trend according to the average energy intensity from 1980 to 2000; the bottom curve shows the energy intensity after 2000. Reduce energy consumption trends by about half.
In 2000, China created a GDP of 8940.36 billion yuan, a population of 126.7 billion, consumes 1.3 billion tons of standard coal, and consumes about 1 ton of standard coal per capita. The energy intensity is 1.45 tons of standard coal per 10,000 yuan of GDP. For every ton of standard coal consumed, it will create a gross domestic product of 0.69 million yuan. If the exchange rate is calculated according to the price of 8.27, it is equivalent to 108.11 billion US dollars, and the per capita output value is 853 US dollars. The energy intensity is 1202 tons of standard coal/million US dollars. Value, for every ton of standard coal consumed, created a gross domestic product of $832.
At present, the annual economic per capita GDP of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has reached 23,000 US dollars, and the per capita GDP of the world is about 5,300 US dollars. For example, according to the average annual growth rate of 1%, the annual per capita GDP of the OECD countries will reach 38,000 US dollars by 2050, and the world's per capita output value is about 8717 US dollars. By the middle of this century, China has basically achieved modernization, reaching the level of moderately developed countries at that time. If the per capita output value is calculated at 10,000 US dollars, the population is considered at 1.6 billion, and the country's GDP is 16 trillion US dollars.
From 2000, China’s GDP reached more than 1 trillion U.S. dollars, and the GDP per ton of standard coal produced 853 U.S. dollars, which reached 16 trillion U.S. dollars in the middle of this century. The output value is 16 times that of 2000, and energy consumption. It can only grow from 1.3 billion tons of standard coal to 3.8 billion tons of standard coal, only three times that of 2000. On average, for every ton of standard coal consumed, it will create a GDP of 4,211 dollars, nearly five times that of 2000.
Experts pointed out that the energy consumption per unit of energy-using products in China is 25% to 90% higher than that in developed countries, and the weighted average is about 40% higher. The energy saving potential of recent technical measures is about 150 million tons of standard coal. And through industrial restructuring, product structure adjustment, reducing the proportion of high-energy industries, increasing the proportion of high value-added products and the quality of residential energy, and taking into account the increase in energy consumption of 700 million tons of standard coal in 2020, The energy saving potential of energy production is about 300 million tons of standard coal. Therefore, China's total energy saving potential in the near future is about 4.5 billion tons of standard coal.
In 2000, China consumed 1.30 billion tons of standard coal, which is about 10.5% of the world's energy consumption of 12.43 billion tons of standard coal. China's GDP is 1.08 trillion US dollars, accounting for only 3.4% of the world's total of 31.8 trillion US dollars. It also shows that China's unit energy consumption production value only accounts for one-third of the world average. In other words, China's energy intensity or output value energy consumption is not much different from the international, but the 2020 energy rational consumption trend to fully realize the well-off society in 2020, China's GDP has quadrupled to 35.8. Trillion yuan, population 1.5 billion, per capita income value of 23,800 yuan, if the average annual growth rate of energy consumption is controlled at 2.5%, total energy consumption will be 2.13 billion tons of standard coal, per capita energy consumption is only 1.42 tons standard Coal, energy intensity 0.59 tons of standard coal / 10,000 yuan of GDP, for every ton of standard coal consumed to create a gross domestic product of 16.8 million. It can be seen that the output value of China's tons of coal should be increased from 4.99 million yuan in 2000 to 16800 yuan in 2020, which needs to increase by 1.4 times. In other words, energy efficiency is more than doubled from the 2000 level. The GDP will quadruple, and energy consumption will not be able to double up. It can only grow by 64%. The power consumption trend of 2020 The 16th National Congress of the Communist Party of China put forward the strategic goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way. After quadrupling, the average annual economic growth rate is about 7.18%. If the electricity consumption elasticity coefficient is 0.86 in the first 20 years, the average annual growth rate of China's power generation installed capacity is about 6.17% in the next 20 years. Considering that China will unswervingly follow the path of sustainable development, the terminal power efficiency will be greatly improved, and the energy consumption and consumption reduction factors such as peak power consumption will be calculated. The average annual growth rate will be calculated by 5.3%. The results are as follows: 2020 power installation The capacity estimate is 100 million kilowatts in the year, and will reach 530 million kilowatts in 2010. It will be close to 700 million kilowatts in 2015 and 900 million kilowatts in 2020. The amount of electricity generated in 2020 is about 4 trillion kWh.
In 2020, China's 900 million kilowatts installed: coal-fired units are about 5.5-570 million kilowatts (about 1.3 billion tons of standard coal per year), hydropower units total 230 million kilowatts, gas units about 60-80 million kilowatts, nuclear power is about 3000 Ten thousand kilowatts, wind power and other renewable energy sources generate about 10 million kilowatts.
At present, the world's power generation installed capacity is about 3.3 billion kilowatts, the per capita installed capacity is about 0.55 kilowatts, and the per capita power generation is about 2,500 kilowatts. The United States is the world's largest power generation country. In 2001, the total installed capacity was about 850 million kilowatts, and the power generation capacity was 340,000. In the case of tens of kilowatt-hours, the per capita installed capacity is 2.8 kilowatts, and the per capita power generation is 13,500 kilowatt-hours. The per capita installed capacity and per capita power generation in the United States are more than 10 times that of China.
Even if China's installed capacity reaches 900 million kilowatts by 2020, the per capita installed capacity is only 04 kilowatts, and the per capita power generation is only about 2650 kilowatt hours. It is only slightly higher than the current world average. There is still a certain gap from the level of medium-developed countries. In order to reach the level of moderately developed countries, China's per capita installed capacity needs to reach about 1 kilowatt, and the per capita annual power generation should be above 4,000 kilowatt hours. In fact, the per capita installed capacity of Shanghai in 2000 has reached 048 kW, and the per capita power generation has reached 4,224 kWh. It is advisable to develop nuclear power in China. Nuclear power does have unsafe factors, but the development of nuclear power is also a last resort. Otherwise, it will not be able to meet the high-speed growth and environmental protection requirements of the power demand brought about by the long-term rapid economic growth. By 2020, China's development of 3000 kilowatts of nuclear power will only account for 3.3% of the total installed capacity, that is, it will grow to 100 million kilowatts by 2050. The proportion of nuclear power in China will only account for about 11% of the total installed capacity. The average nuclear power of the world's nuclear power countries accounts for the total. The proportion of installed capacity is to explore the development of wind power. At the end of 2001, the installed capacity of wind power in the world has reached 24.97 million kilowatts. From 996 to 2001, the average annual growth rate of world wind power installed capacity was 32.6%. From the news of the first World Wind Energy Conference held in Lebanon on April 2, 2002. It is said that the world has spent 25 years to bring the current wind power installation to 25 million kilowatts, but it is expected to increase to 60 million kilowatts in the next five years. It is estimated that by 2010, the installed capacity of wind power in the world will grow to 120,000 MW. At present, 15 wind power installations in the EU have established wind power installed capacity of 20 million kilowatts. By 2020, wind power installed capacity in Europe will reach 100 million kilowatts. The world's wind power will provide 10% of the world's electricity demand. According to Xinhua News Agency, By August 2002, German wind power installed capacity had exceeded 10 million kilowatts. It is estimated that Germany's wind power generation in 2002 will exceed 20 billion kilowatt hours. China's total installed capacity of electric power is 2.5 times that of Germany. After 17 years, it has reached 10 million kilowatts of wind power installed capacity in Germany. It should be able to do it through hard work. If the world really realizes that wind power provides 10% of the world's electricity demand, China's wind power installed capacity will also reach 10 million kilowatts, calculated according to annual power generation hours of 3000, annual power generation capacity of 30 billion kilowatt hours, far less than the power demand of 40,000 in 2020. In view of the above, China's energy conservation work in the past 20 years has achieved remarkable results, but the potential for energy conservation is still very large. Looking forward to the next 20 years, the efficiency of China's energy utilization must be doubled at least on the basis of the present, in order to meet the needs of a comprehensive realization of a well-off society and the harmonious development of economy, energy and environment. Only by continuing to work hard to improve energy efficiency and vigorously develop clean and renewable energy can we meet the grand strategic goals of sustainable development and basic modernization.
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