The housing leaks coincided with the night rain, and the crude oil market in the downturn ushered in a bearish situation. On July 22, the latest data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that US crude oil inventories increased by 2.3 million in the week ending July 17. barrel. The unexpected rise in inventories caused the international oil price in the weak market to fall again. As of 17:50 on the 22nd, the New York crude oil futures price was reported at 50.33 US dollars per barrel.
Although last week's data showed that the number of oil drilling in the United States fell again, it is not expected to continue to increase production in OPEC oil producing countries, especially Iran. Analysts said that due to the expected increase in interest rate hikes by the Fed and the impact of increased Iranian exports, international oil prices have recently declined rapidly. It is expected that in the medium and long term, the oversupply pattern in the crude oil market will intensify and may fall below $50 per barrel in the short term. It is expected to quickly slide into the "low price era."
The International Energy Agency said in its latest monthly report that the global crude oil supply surplus will continue into 2016. Although low oil prices have led to an improvement in global demand for crude oil, demand growth is still far from being able to stabilize supply growth. The output of OPEC countries remains at a high level, leading to an imbalance in global supply and demand and may lead to further weakening of oil prices.
At present, the Iranian nuclear issue has reached an agreement. Analysts say this will increase market concerns about oversupply. It is widely expected that Iran will increase the supply of 1 million barrels per day of crude oil in the next six months to one year. At the same time, Iran will face competition between Saudi Arabia and Iraq. If OPEC does not give up some share to deal with Iran's crude oil increase, the pattern of oversupply will increase.
Earlier, the Iranian Deputy Minister of Petroleum claimed that after the sanctions were lifted, Iran hopes to double the output of crude oil exports, which will increase from the current 1.2 million barrels per day to 2.3 million barrels per day. As the second largest oil producer in OPEC, Iran has shown a positive attitude towards the current market share of global oil supply, saying that it will promote other member states of OPEC to update the Qatar market quota system. Industry insiders expect that the next oil-producing countries will usher in a new battle for market share.
Goldman Sachs said that Iran reached a nuclear deal with the six major powers this week, which is expected to bring down the risk of oil prices, because Iran's huge oil reserve capacity will gradually return to the market from 2016, and supply will increase. The timetable for the lifting of sanctions means that the agreement will not affect the oil supply and demand in 2015. The OPEC oil production in 2016, including Iran, will increase, and the risk of lowering the oil price estimate will increase.
From the market sentiment, the crude oil futures market is shrinking. The latest position report released by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows that as of July 14, 2015, there was a small increase in the total positions of the WTI Fund. According to specific statistics, the number of long-term WTI funds decreased by 17,828 contracts last week, and the short position increased by 13,945 contracts, resulting in a net decrease of 31,773 contracts, a decrease of 10.73%, indicating that the long position of short positions was significantly increased, and the market was bearish. Affected by the time lag of data release, the long-short sentiment reflected in the fund position is relatively lagging behind.
At present, the focus of the market is still the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates in the future. Earlier analysts pointed out that once the Fed did raise interest rates as expected in September, commodity futures prices, including crude oil, would generally further fall by 10%-20%. Therefore, in the medium term, if there is no accident, the crude oil price will still be biased downwards, and any rebound will only be a temporary situation.
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