On December 15th, at the first session of the China Automotive Second and Third Level Market Forum held in Beijing, Xu Changming, Director of the Information Resource Department of the National Information Center, summarized the Chinese auto market in 2006 as three high-growth, ie, the total demand for automobiles resumed high growth, and the car Imports changed from low to high growth, and auto exports continued to grow for the fourth consecutive year. Xu Changming believes that the Chinese auto market will be in a high growth trend in the next 15 years; at the same time, he also predicts that the growth rate of China's auto market will be around 15% next year.
This year, the automotive market is showing three high growth
Xu Changming said in his analysis of the first high growth that China's auto market has experienced high growth both in terms of the total demand for cars and the demand for passenger cars.
Xu Changming said that China’s total automobile sales this year will be about 7 million vehicles, and the total size of the automobile market will surpass the 1 million Japanese market scale, ranking second in the world; but the annual output of Japanese cars will be around 10 million, exceeding our country’s 3 million vehicles, it is estimated that about three years, China's auto production will exceed Japan.
Xu Changming analyzed the passenger car market, saying that in addition to the 14% slower growth due to policies in 2004, the domestic passenger car market has been growing rapidly in recent years: an increase of 58.3% in 2002, in 2003. It is 70.6%, 25.8% in 2005, plus 2006, the average increase in the past few years will reach 36%. This high growth rate is unique in the world.
Xu Changming said that the sales volume of China's auto market this year accounts for about 11% of the world. The importance of the Chinese auto market in the global market is evident.
In analyzing the second high growth, Xu Changming said that this year's domestic imported car market has changed for the past three years in a downturn and has experienced high growth.
Xu Changming recalled that 2002 was the first year after China's accession to the WTO, when the number of imported cars was 118,400, an increase of 134% over 2001. In the following three years, the number of imported vehicles increased by only 10,000 vehicles each year, an increase of only 6% to 7%. Since the beginning of this year, automobile imports have increased significantly, with an increase of 28.2% in the first three quarters. The main reason is that the market's demand structure for imported cars has changed significantly. The first consumers who purchase cars have begun to become interested in high-end SUVs, and domestic SUVs cannot meet demand. According to statistics, high-grade SUVs account for about 40% of imported cars this year.
In analyzing the third high growth, Xu Changming said that after China's accession to the WTO, the export volume of automobiles will double every year: 20,000 vehicles were exported in 2002, 48,000 vehicles were exported in 2003, and 78,000 vehicles were exported in 2004. The annual export of 172,000 vehicles is expected to export 350,000 vehicles in 2006. This shows that the comprehensive strength of China's auto industry has been significantly strengthened in the competition.
Passenger car market continues to develop rapidly
Xu Changming, analyzing the trend of the domestic passenger vehicle market in the next few years, said: “In the next 15 years, the Chinese passenger vehicle market will be in a rapid development range. The law of the international automobile market shows that the growth rate of demand for the passenger vehicle market is approximately The growth rate of GDP is 1.5 times that year, and the growth rate of China's GDP will be about 9.5% to 10% next year. From this we conclude that the demand for the automobile market will increase by about 15% next year."
Xu Changming analyzed the price trend of the automobile market in the future, saying that during the five years since China joined the WTO, the price of passenger cars has fallen by 5% to 7% each year. Although the space for price decline in the next few years is not as large as in previous years, it will still show a downward trend. This is mainly based on the following judgments:
First, the next five years will be a crucial period for the adjustment of China's auto industry. The output of passenger vehicles will increase from the current 4 million to 8 million. It is unlikely that there will be a significant increase in the number of passenger car companies in China, so the scale of production capacity of enterprises will expand. In general, the prices in the automotive market are dictated by the companies that have the advantage of occupying scale. The expansion of the production scale of these enterprises will reduce the production costs, and thus make it possible for car prices to continue to decline.
Second, due to the rapid development of the main brand enterprises in recent years, the market share of self-owned brands and joint venture brands has changed greatly. Before 2004, the ratio of market share between self-owned brands and joint venture brands was 1:4, which has now reached 1:3. Because the price of self-owned brand cars is significantly lower than that of joint venture brands of the same grade, with the increase of market share of the self-owned brands and the improvement of competitiveness, there will be sufficient ability to challenge the prices in the automobile market, and the price of automobiles will inevitably decline. .
Many factors affect the car market next year
Xu Changming, in analyzing the positive factors of the auto market next year, said that the recent changes in the auto market mainly depend on short-term factors. First, with the acceleration of industrialization, marketization, urbanization, and internationalization, and a number of new measures introduced by the government to promote consumption, the Chinese economy will experience sustained and rapid growth. Second, China is currently at the stage of “demographic dividendâ€. We have yet to really enter the ageing stage, adopting family planning programs to reduce the proportion of young people, and overall, the rate of dependency is low. Third, the high savings rate drives high investment rates, which promotes high economic growth. The growth rate of 9.5% to 10% of the national economy next year will provide a strong guarantee for the sustainable development of the auto market.
Xu Changming believes that the possible rise in oil prices and the implementation of fuel tax will be two important factors affecting the auto market next year, but the estimated impact will not occur until the fourth quarter of next year at the earliest.
Xu Changming made the following predictions on the total scale of the automotive market next year: It is estimated that the total demand of the automotive market in 2007 will be about 8 million vehicles, an increase of 14% from the 7 million in 2006; the total demand for the passenger vehicle market in 2007 is expected to be about 5 million. Vehicles, an increase of 20% from the 4.22 million in 2006.
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