Nan Chen: China's auto industry cannot grow "crazy"

Ministry of Industry and Information Technology recently released data showing that from January to July this year, China's automobile production and sales were 10,464,400 and 10.610 million, respectively, an increase of 2.33% and 3.22%, respectively, the increase in automobile production and sales fell 41.47 and the same period last year. 39.37 percentage points. The sharp decline in the year-on-year increase and the full-year growth rate are likely to be below the GDP growth rate. Most voices in the auto industry are still relatively calm. For example, from the perspective of the situation in July, the China Automobile Association analyzed that the production and sales of automobiles are still growing at a low rate. The current car production and sales trend is in line with expectations.

What is even more alarming for the industry is the recent disclosure by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology that in the first five months of this year, China's foreign oil dependence reached 55.2%, surpassing the United States for the first time (53.5%).

In fact, under the circumstance that the sales of new vehicles surpassed the US's number one position in the world for the second consecutive year, it is difficult to avoid the dependence of crude oil on the United States. According to experts, the crude oil consumption brought by the automotive industry is the main support for the growth of China's crude oil demand. At present, China's 90% of new crude oil demand comes from the automotive industry. For a long period of time in the future, China’s dependence on foreign oil will gradually increase, and it will be close to 70% by the end of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”.

The reporter believes that China’s crude oil dependence on foreign capital surpasses that of the United States once again to wake up the auto industry and relevant departments, and cannot predict the scale of the future automobile market linearly based on China’s population base, car ownership, and per capita income, but should comprehensively integrate energy, land, and Factors such as environmental sustainability are taken into consideration. In particular, we must pay attention to the constraints that the short-board of energy brings to China's auto industry, otherwise it will directly interfere with the country's energy security strategy.

It is worth learning from the oil crisis that has occurred in the history of the United States. In the oil embargo imposed on the United States by the countries concerned, the United States has seen the “country on wheels”: the price of gas at gas stations has risen and risen; the vehicles queued for refueling have been getting longer and longer, and sometimes it takes one hour to add oil once. Some gas stations require vehicles to be refueled on single and double days in accordance with license plate numbers; more gas stations are tempted to hang out the "No oil today" brand.

Some areas in China have also experienced tight supply of refined oil products. For example, in the summer of 2005, there was a large area of ​​“oil shortage” in the Pearl River Delta region. Cities such as Guangzhou, Dongguan, Foshan, Zhongshan, and Zhaoqing have experienced varying degrees of tight oil supply. Especially in recent years, there have been many "diesel shortages" that have appeared in local areas: large freight cars line up at petrol stations for half a day, and they can only add one or two hundred yuan of diesel fuel. They do not "threat the thirst" at all. Although the final investigation proved that these local areas and short-term oil supply shortages are related to the smuggling of refined oil products overseas, the ups and downs against the enthusiasm of oil refineries, seasonal oil peaks, and other factors, and quickly eased and controlled, but the "Premature rehearsals" is still a good lesson for the whole society to save energy and cherish energy.

The reporter believes that China’s crude oil dependence on foreign countries surpasses that of the United States for the first time, and the competent authorities related to automobiles should attach great importance and take measures from different levels in the short, medium and long term.

In the short term, the relevant government departments should decisively increase the fuel consumption standard of enjoying the 3,000 yuan “energy-saving products Huimin Project” energy-saving vehicle subsidy models, use higher standards to encourage auto manufacturers to adopt more advanced fuel-saving technologies, and improve third-party fuel consumption at the same time The inspection system avoids manufacturers from "talking to themselves and selling themselves." At the same time, in the use of automobiles, it is necessary to rely on the improvement of public transport and the establishment of economic adjustment measures in major cities such as Beijing to reduce the use of cars in the central city, and increase the elimination and subsidy of old models with high fuel consumption. In the mid-to-long term, it is necessary to accelerate the introduction of more stringent fuel consumption standards for automobiles to avoid lagging far behind Europe, the United States and Japan. At the same time, breakthroughs must be made in the field of new energy vehicles such as electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles, and the auto industry’s dependence on fossil fuels should be reduced. Give full play to the role of the association, and accelerate the breakthrough in the application of common energy-saving technologies such as lightening the body. We must use the power of the market to eliminate backward production capacity. The most important thing is to avoid falling into the pitfalls of expanding the Chinese auto market's growth prospects and trying to break through the trap of capacity control, and to scientifically and rationally control the pace of development of China's auto industry and consumption.