In recent years, China's fine chemical industry has developed rapidly, especially in the field of surfactants, which has caused the ethylene oxide market to fall short of supply. In 2007, the domestic ethylene oxide market took over the inertia of prices in 2006, and the trend was steady, and prices continued to rise. It is expected that the good development momentum of the ethylene oxide industry will continue in 2008.
In the first quarter of 2007, ethylene oxide prices fluctuated slightly, operating at the low level in the second quarter and steadily rising in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, the ethylene oxide prices were strong and continued to hit new highs. Last year, the average price of ethylene oxide was 14,437 yuan/ton, which was a 9.1% increase from the previous year. Although the production of ethylene oxide in 2007 reached around 600,000 tons, which continued to increase compared to 2006, due to the substantial increase in downstream demand, the ethylene oxide market is still in short supply. Especially after entering the sales season in the second half of last year, the situation of insufficient supply was particularly prominent, resulting in an increase in volume and price increases.
In 2008, the production capacity of the ethylene oxide/ethylene glycol cogeneration plant in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai increased slightly. If the market demand is greater than the supply, the ethylene oxide price will increase steadily or increase slightly. The situation. Overall, there are the following advantages in the domestic ethylene oxide market this year:
Demand continues to expand In recent years, China's ethylene oxide/ethylene glycol cogeneration plant has been completed and put into production, but ethylene oxide production capacity is still at a relatively low level. At present, the output is still unable to meet the demand, and the tight supply of ethylene oxide still exists. The pattern of prosperous production and sales will not change in the near future.
Surviving the fittest and standardizing the market 2008 is a crucial year for fulfilling the binding targets for energy conservation and emission reduction in the “Eleventh Five-Year Planâ€. The government will strictly control new projects, and some companies will be eliminated if the environmental protection fails to meet the standards. The National Development and Reform Commission has clearly stipulated in the “Guidance Catalogue for Product Structure Adjustment†in 2005: the construction of ethylene oxide/ethylene glycol units with a limit of less than 132,000 tons/year. This move will play a positive role in stabilizing the ethylene oxide market and protecting the development of large and medium-sized enterprises.
Fine Chemicals Effectively In 2008, China will continue to vigorously develop fine chemicals, which is of great significance for changing the product structure of existing enterprises, improving economic and social benefits, and promoting the development of the national economy. Under this background, the domestic demand for ethylene glycol, synthetic detergents, ethylene oxide derived surfactants and other products will continue to increase, especially in the development and application of new products, ethylene oxide The market still has great potential, and will effectively support the upward movement of ethylene oxide prices.
Centralized sales stable market Under the condition that the centralized sales system of Sinopec Group continues, it is expected that the prices of ethylene oxide products in 2008 will show a steady increase or a slight increase. The practice of centralized sales will play a positive role in stabilizing the ethylene oxide market. Under normal circumstances, the average ethylene oxide price in 2008 is expected to be around 14,800 yuan/ton.
However, this year's domestic ethylene oxide market will also face some negative factors: As the demand continues to increase, the international crude oil price will continue to rise, which will drive the price of ethylene and other downstream products to rise, for ethylene oxide. Producers have brought about some pressure; in 2008, the deposit reserve ratio may continue to increase. Under the circumstances that the commercial bank's lending energy is relatively weakened, it will put pressure on the capital turnover of some ethylene oxide downstream companies. In addition, the production capacity of ethylene oxide in China is still at a relatively low level, and there is still a certain gap between the production process, energy consumption and material consumption compared with advanced countries.
At present, China's ethylene oxide and ethylene glycol are co-production devices, and the linkage between ethylene glycol and ethylene oxide prices will continue. Manufacturers should consider the market environment they are in, adjust the optimal ratio of the two in a timely manner, and strive for maximum efficiency.