According to industry insiders, the impact of the Olympic Games on the chemical industry is limited to the import, export, transportation, and start-up of production in some industries, with limited impact. After the Olympics, the trend of international crude oil prices and the degree of economic prosperity at home and abroad are the most important factors affecting the later development of the chemical industry.
Poor logistics only cause short-term effects
Bohai Bohai Researcher Liu Wei pointed out that from the price point of view, the impact of the Olympic Games led to production and operations, import and export, and logistics are more affected by the production of calcium carbide, which makes the recent rise in calcium carbide prices. After the Olympic Games, the supply will increase, and it is expected that prices will fall back to normal levels. Chemical production enterprises using calcium carbide as raw materials will benefit from this.
Industry insiders pointed out that the impact of the Olympic Games on production and logistics is relatively limited to the chemical industry, and this effect can be expected in advance. Some companies have also made early arrangements for import and export and production to minimize losses.
The late boom is mainly based on oil prices
For chemical companies, crude oil prices not only affect production costs and product prices, but also affect downstream and terminal needs because they affect the entire economic situation.
Therefore, Everbright Securities researcher Yan Yang said: "The future of the chemical sector depends on the extent of the key economic trends, especially crude oil prices." Although July international crude oil prices fell from the high of 147 US dollars to 110-120 US dollars, but Compared with the same period last year, the seven or eighty dollar still has a huge increase.
Industry sources pointed out that oil prices are positively correlated with the degree of prosperity of the chemical sector to a certain extent, oil prices have risen high, the cost and price of chemical products have increased, and terminal demand has been strong. Tension Yang pointed out that the economic prosperity of the chemical industry in the first half of this year was still relatively high, mainly because of the strengthening of oil prices.
Liu Xintian, executive editor of China National Chemical Network, said that the drop in oil prices was accompanied by a sluggish economy and sluggish demand. In addition, the cost reduction caused by the current drop in oil prices has not been transmitted to mid-stream companies, resulting in high costs and weak demand, leading to the Olympics. The economy of the chemical sector in the next few months is worrying.
On the other hand, Tension Yang pointed out that there are scissor cuts in the cost of chemical products containing coal-based chemicals and foreign oil and natural gas as raw materials. The higher the price of crude oil, the greater the advantage of domestic exports. Now that the price of oil has fallen, the scissors gap will shrink, and so it will have a greater impact on exports.
â€œAfter the Olympics, the trend of domestic coal prices and international oil prices will greatly determine the degree of prosperity of the chemical sector.â€ Tension Yang said.
Bad buying is worrying
The weak performance of the overall economic situation at home and abroad has become a common concern for the industry in the future of the chemical sector.
Liu Xintian pointed out that the chemical industry is now characterized by "buying gas." The weakening of the overall economic situation has resulted in a lack of end-user demand. For instance, the chemical fiber industry is restrained by weak apparel exports and has a low degree of prosperity.
According to industry insiders, generally, the second half of the year is not the best sales period for many chemical industry segments, so it is difficult to see large-scale peak demand during this period.
Liu Xintian pointed out that many sub-sectors support policy after waiting for the Olympics, including import and export policies and protection policies of the industry. For example, DME has received policy support for some time.
Bohai Securities Liu Wei believes that from the sub-industry point of view, potash fertilizer and phosphorus chemical industry and crude oil prices have a strong linkage, he believes that the future price of crude oil will remain high, so the potash fertilizer and phosphorus chemical industry will be better, chemical industry chain The mid-stream business days will not be too good.
â€œAs the price of crude oil falls, the prices of agricultural products have also dropped sharply, and the demand for chemical fertilizers has decreased. Therefore, the fertilizer industry is more likely to expect policy support.â€ Tension Yang said. However, he believes that the pesticide sector may receive attention because it occupies a relatively small proportion of the agricultural product cost, and it also faces the transfer of domestic industries abroad, and the amount of international procurement is also increasing.
Liu Xintian believes that the relatively favourable products in the later period are fine chemical products, such as printing and dyeing, pharmaceuticals, etc., which have higher profitability. Sub-industries with deep processing and re-exploitation potential may be more favorable than traditional chemical fertilizers and polyurethanes. High, coal chemical industry will continue to receive attention.
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