"The growth rate of demand in both domestic and foreign markets may fall back from this year, but there will be no sudden reversal of the trend of continued growth. The total demand is still expected to continue to grow. In addition, China's equipment manufacturing industry occupies the manufacturing industry. The proportion of added value is still far behind that of industrialized countries, and there is still considerable room for development in this industry."
Cai Weici, vice president of the China Federation of Machinery Industry, gave the above judgment when he analyzed the economic operation situation of the machinery industry next year.
Product exports show upgrading potential
Cai Weici believes that the development of the machinery industry this year presents four characteristics.
Increased support for the national economy. The performance of self-sufficiency in domestic equipment has steadily increased, and the product development required for consumer upgrades has accelerated and the pace of key equipment technology has accelerated. Great progress was made in the localization of major technical equipment, and basic equipment continued to maintain a high growth trend. A number of key equipment such as large CNC turning and milling machines for processing marine crankshafts and large-scale marine propeller processing equipment have made breakthroughs.
The contribution to energy conservation and emission reduction has increased. On the one hand, the product structure oriented toward high efficiency and energy saving is further optimized and upgraded. On the other hand, enterprises have made significant progress in energy conservation and emission reduction. At present, the comprehensive energy consumption level of the machinery industry is one third of the national average level of industrial energy consumption. According to the sample survey, the comprehensive energy consumption per million yuan of production value of machinery manufacturing enterprises was 0.194 tons of standard coal per million in 2001, 0.075 tons in 2006, and an average annual reduction of 21%. The steel consumption per million yuan in 2000 was 0.165 tons per million yuan. Coal, in 2005 was 0.110 tons, an average annual reduction of 8%.
Accelerate its own structural adjustment. The growth rate of the new output value was significantly faster than the growth rate of the total industrial output value over the same period, and the expenses for R&D of enterprises generally increased. With the invisible hand of the market and the government’s intentional guidance, industrial agglomerations featuring specialization and scale have begun to grow in many regions. In addition, the development of a number of vanguard companies has a good momentum of development and initially presents a virtuous circle. Particularly striking is that changes have taken place in the industry structure. The electric and automotive industries have accounted for more than half of the total industry. Although the total amount of construction machinery, basic machinery and parts does not dominate, it maintains a certain rate of development.
In terms of foreign trade, the import and export trade of the machinery industry has shifted from a deficit to a surplus this year. The export products have shown a trend of upgrading, and the export value of high value-added products has gradually increased. The proportion of general trade in foreign trade has been greater than that of processing trade. The growth rate of the import and export of private enterprises is higher than the industry average, and the proportion in the import and export trade continues to increase.
Continue to grow steadily next year
Cai Weici predicts from sub-industries that the output of power generation equipment manufacturing industry in the electrical industry is expected to surpass that of last year and it is expected that the output will remain at a relatively high level next year. The production and sales of power transmission and transformation equipment manufacturing industry will remain high.
It is worth noting that next year is a crucial year for the construction of a one-million-volt high voltage AC power transmission experiment demonstration project. The successful breakthrough of this voltage class will have a profound impact on the development of the power transmission and transformation equipment manufacturing industry. Most companies in heavy machinery, petrochemical GM, and machine tool industries currently have full orders and are expected to maintain a good momentum next year. Construction machinery industry is expected to grow at a slower pace this year than this year. Agricultural machinery, internal combustion engines, basic parts, and instrumentation are expected to be based on steady development.
Cai Weici reminded that due to the sharp contradictions in the supply of key raw materials, energy, and transport capacity required by the machinery industry in local areas, enterprises must be prepared.
Industry development is still weak
The mode of extensive development of the machinery industry has not yet fundamentally changed. The outstanding performance is that the key technologies are excessively dependent on the introduction from foreign countries. The development relies excessively on the growth of physical output. The industry relies excessively on high-intensity resource consumption, and companies are overzealous in expanding production capacity.
Cai Weici said that although the upgrading of machinery products is fast, the dependence on the foreign side is too deep. Take the fast-growing electrician and auto industry as an example. New products and new technologies are still generally imported from foreign partners. Independent innovation capabilities, especially original innovation capabilities, are still not enough to support the entire industry. The heavy responsibility. In addition, high-end equipment is frequent, but key components are difficult to autonomy. Large-scale castings and forgings, super high voltage AC and DC insulated bushings and insulation molded parts, DC field equipment, key supporting bearings for wind power equipment, high-grade engine and hydraulic parts, high-end numerical control systems and functional components, frequency conversion devices and power electronic components supporting construction machinery High-end control systems and test instruments, high-grade electrical components and bearings have always been the bottleneck restricting the development of high-end equipment and are the outstanding weaknesses in the development of the industry.
From January to September, the machinery industry completed a total investment of 523.3 billion yuan, an increase of 42.55% over the same period of last year. The increase in investment was 16% higher than the national total investment in fixed assets, which was 7 percentage points higher than that of the entire manufacturing industry. Cai Weici stated that investment growth has reasonable factors, but overall, the epitaxial component is too heavy and there is a tendency for capacity expansion to be excessive.
In this regard, Cai Weici reminded companies to pay attention to scientific development when they compete to upgrade. The competitiveness of an enterprise is not only related to the size of the enterprise, but also related to the speed and ability to respond to the market. The strength of a company not only manifests itself in processing equipment, but also in research and development methods and capabilities. The added value of the company not only comes from the expansion of existing products, but also from the development of ideas and changes in the way of development.
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