"Over the years, the growth rate of the machinery industry has been higher than the industrial average, and the growth of the mechanical efficiency has also been higher than the increase in production and sales during the same period of last year. However, this year, the two higher levels have become lower, highlighting the situation in the machinery industry this year. Severe nature.†This is the opening word for Cai Weici, a research expert in China's machinery industry, who attended the analysis of an industry situation at the end of 2015.
From his point of view, from the perspective of the data, a series of changes are taking place in the operation of the machinery industry. Although some of these changes are still continuing, they have shown signs of slowing down. Although they are not optimistic about next year, they can expect a slight positive growth. “I think the real challenge is whether the bottoming out is successful and whether it can only eliminate the restorative growth. This will test whether our industry restructuring and upgrading can be successfully implemented.â€
Data Cai Weici recalled that for ten consecutive years during the “Tenth Five-Year Plan†and “Eleventh Five-Year Planâ€, the industrial growth rate was as high as 25% or more, and the increase in profit was more than 28%. After entering the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€, the overall trend of continuous decline was from the past. More than 25% dropped to about 10%. This year, it can be said that it is declining month by month. The main business income has decreased from 4.57% in the first quarter of the year to 2.92% at the end of the third quarter. The profit has decreased from 1.42% at the beginning of the year to 0.34% in the third quarter.
It is a trend that the growth rate continues to decline. The first is the industrial added value, and the national industrial added value increased by 6.1% from January to October in 2015. The year of 2014 was 8.3%. In October, the year-on-year increase in industrial added value was only 5.6%, lower than the average increase. This shows that the growth rate of the national industry is still continuing downward. The output of major products accounted for 25%, and the average decline in output was 75%. This situation is contrary to the past ten years. It used to be two-thirds of average industrial growth, and one-third of average industry decline. This year's down, it also shows that the situation this year is indeed more severe.
Correspondingly, the value-added of machinery industry from January to October increased by 5.2 compared with the same period of last year. Compared with the increase of 10% for the machinery industry in the past three years, the growth rate of the machinery industry dropped by 4.8 percentage points, which is still lower than the average increase of the national industry over the same period. However, the bright spot is that the month in October increased by 5.3% year-on-year, 0.1 percentage point higher than the average increase of 5.2%. This may have signaled a steady increase in the growth of mechanical value.
Cai Weici said that the growth rate of the machinery industry this year is lower than the national average. The two main reasons are as follows: First, the driving force that drives our national economic growth has changed, and the original investment has driven the transition to consumption. The machinery industry is an investment-led industry. Therefore, this year, the growth rate of the industry is lower than the average level of national development. Second, the automotive industry is the main factor for the deceleration of this year's growth rate. The auto industry ranked first in the total amount of the machinery industry. Taking 2014 as an example, sales in the automotive industry accounted for 31.4% of the industry's total, and profits accounted for nearly 40% of the industry's total. Therefore, the sluggish trend of the auto industry this year has caused the overall weakness of the machinery industry. A closer comparison shows that the growth rate of the value-added of the machinery industry in August this year was the lowest, at 3.7%, up by 4.1% in September and 5.3% in October. This shows that the downturn of the machinery industry has stabilized since September and has obviously recovered in October.
There is another data that deserves caution. That is profit. In the first three quarters, the profit of the machinery industry was 1.07 trillion yuan, but the increase was only 0.34%. Compared with the increase of 460 million yuan in 2014, the growth rate of profits fell back to 10 percentage points, and the profit growth rate of 0.34 was higher than that of the same period. Compared with the revenue of 2.92 for the revenue business, it was 2.58 percentage points lower.
What are the implications for us of tapping potential changes in the machinery industry?
Regarding this issue, Cai Weici's reply is that with this phased change of industrialization from the middle to the middle and later stages, the machinery industry has indeed entered a new period where growth has become more gradual and competition has become more intense. The development of the industry can no longer be supported by the expansion of production capacity, it must be transferred from the scale to the efficiency.
In addition, in the large machinery industry, the degree of prosperity of different sub-sectors is not the same. Some industries in the same environment, the growth rate is significantly higher than the machinery industry's industry-wide average. For example, the main business income of the machinery industry increased by an average of 2.92% in the previous months, but agricultural machinery grew by 7.59% and environmental protection machinery increased by 9.22%. The same is true for profits. The industry grew by 0.34%, but agricultural machinery grew by 12.4%, while environmental protection machinery increased by 4.58%. Of course, there are still some industries. The growth rate is significantly lower than the industry average, and the main business income of construction machinery has dropped by 7.88% year-on-year.
It can be seen that the typical investment products industry in the machinery industry has a severe operating situation, with the growth rate declining significantly higher than the average level of the industry. Consumers include agricultural machinery, food packaging machinery, environmental protection machinery, information technology, instrumentation, etc. In industries with a close consumer base, the situation is relatively good. It is necessary to reflect on the basic parts and components industry, and the operation is relatively stable. Especially in the period of low market, the growth rate of the basic parts and components industry is obviously higher than the average level of the machinery industry.
Based on the analysis of the reasons, Cai Weici believes that the host industry is mainly to meet the incremental demand, while the basic parts industry, in addition to satisfying the increment, has a part applied to service and maintenance.
The contribution of consumption under the new normal has increased significantly, and the contribution rate of investment has gradually declined. Under such a background, Cai Weici called for companies to pay attention to and tap into the mechanical service market for consumers, and in the meantime, to upgrade and upgrade inventory. In the service market, not only parts and components companies pay attention to this market, host companies can also pay attention to this trend and respond accordingly.
Similarly, in the face of declining demand and rising costs, private companies and small businesses have demonstrated greater adaptability. The data shows that the main business income and profit growth rate of private enterprises are higher than that of state-owned enterprises by 12% and 24%, respectively, and foreign exchange earning by exports is 7 percentage points higher.
Cai Weici made a hypothesis that if the entire industry can achieve the growth rate of private enterprises, this year it will not be 2.92% business growth and 0.34% growth, and the figures will become 7.11% and 10.22%. This is undoubtedly attractive. This shows that the vitality of the market players themselves is of utmost importance. If you have strong vitality, you can demonstrate strong resilience, lack of vitality, and lack of resilience. Therefore, deepening reforms, transforming mechanisms, and increasing market participants' pressure and motivation are excavated by each company. The potential lies.
The performance of Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces shows that innovation and upgrading are a weapon against market fluctuations. Under the background of a sharp fall in the industry, although the growth rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces is also declining, the fall rate is obviously much smaller. Contrary to this, although there are strong foundations for the machinery industry in some regions, reforms have been implemented. Innovation lags behind. In this round of adjustments, the growth rate has dropped significantly. For example, the business growth in the first three quarters of Jiangsu was 5.78%, Zhejiang 2.05%; the profit Jiangsu growth was 6.69%, Zhejiang was 6.40%. In the first three quarters of export, Jiangsu increased by 1.46 percent and Zhejiang by 7.88%.
How to do a good job How to make exports is a topic that everyone is more concerned about. Cai Weichai believes that this country has also taken effective measures. According to the calculation of the international bank, from January 2014 to August of this year, the RMB effective exchange rate has appreciated by 11.6%, 11.3% against the euro, and 9.6 against the yen. %, the competitiveness of our export commodities has significantly weakened, but for three consecutive days starting on August 11 this year, the RMB’s dollar depreciated by a median of 4.6 percentage points and remained at that level. "I think this figure is very powerful. It is beneficial to our exports to pick up. This will take a period of time to be realized because there will be a time for this order to be settled, but this will have a certain effect on the improvement of export competitiveness in the later period."
In addition, he is concerned that the high level of inventory growth in industry and enterprise products has slowed down and the pressure has declined. Although he is not optimistic about this, but from January to September this year, the inventory growth is 6.56%, which is a two-thirds increase. According to the statistics of the first half of the year, the total industry product inventory is less than 1 trillion yuan, accounting for 4.3% of the main business revenue for the entire year. This proportion is not high.
There are also low purchase prices in the industry, and the purchase price of energy and power is at a low level, which will help the industry to reduce energy efficiency. The price index for the machinery industry from January to September was 98.8%, while the fuel power was 88.75%, and the steel was 92.69%. The reduction of these energy prices was helpful for companies to reduce costs.
The most important thing is that structural upgrading is accumulating the development potential of the industry. For example, power generation equipment was a short board in the past, but this year's scientific and technological achievement award ranks higher on this product. In the past, these mainly depended on imports. Now competition with Taiwan will not be lost to foreign counterparts, so now Harbin Electric Machinery Factory is in the bidding process. In the middle, you can also gain the upper hand. In addition, the Shenyang Machine Tool Test Bench has been set up to study the advanced intelligent technologies based on the Internet, which shows the user's operation programming maintenance and management, and the intelligent development on the network. At present, the order for this product is also rapidly rising.
In the first three quarters, although the growth rate of machinery import and export was declining, the growth rate of exports was much higher than that of imports. This shows that our international competitiveness is improving. Among all products, the growth rate of general trade exports was 0.88%, which was a positive increase; the processing trade was decreased by 6.14%, showing that the growth rate of general trade with high added value was much higher than that of processing trade.
Cai Weici predicts that the growth in the value-added of machinery will reach 5% or more in the whole year of 2015. The growth of the main business income will reach more than 3%, and the profit will increase by about 1%. For 2016, Cai Weici judges that the machinery industry will continue to operate at a low speed. Typical investment products such as power generation equipment, petrochemical equipment, dock equipment, etc., do not expect a clear rebound in demand, but may not be even worse than in 2015. With regard to nuclear power and new energy power generation, the subdivision sector may be expected to rise.
“I am even more worried about the pressure of structural upgrading.†Cai Weici frankly stated that the economy has a cycle and there is a downturn, but the poor structure will make the days ahead more and more sad. The difficulties in structural upgrading are mainly in his opinion. There are three main reasons: First, the entrepreneurial ability is weak, and there is not enough energy. The second is a serious surplus of production capacity, prompting vicious competition. Li Zhen was entangled with Li, and it was difficult to obtain high prices at the high end. It was difficult to recover huge amounts of investment and dampened confidence. Third, the upgrading of domestic equipment to high-end is affected by the market environment.
Therefore, he suggested that the government should mainly use the subsidy funds to support innovation capacity building instead of expanding production capacity. Companies also need to shift more of their investment in capacity expansion to the construction of innovation capabilities, and accelerate the development of research and development conditions. . For some "zombie" companies that have no future, his attitude can be eliminated, which will greatly ease the pressure of vicious competition, and create an environment conducive to the development of advantageous enterprises for the whole industry. To support domestically-made equipment applications, he hopes that the relevant departments can take measures, including giving subsidies to users, help companies to open the market faster, and help them to go a step.
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