ABS is difficult to get rid of the downturn in the short term
Since late March, the ABS market has shrouded in shadow and prices have fallen slightly, dropping by 50-200 yuan (t price, the same below). In the raw material styrene and other market downturn, the impact of weak downstream demand, the market will bear the leading factor in the trend of prices, ABS market outlook or continue to slightly lower, it is difficult to show the market. In terms of upstream raw materials, whether it is styrene, acrylonitrile or butadiene, prices have declined to varying degrees, which is undoubtedly a bearish factor for the ABS market.
The styrene market encountered Waterloo, and the price in East China fell below 10,500 yuan. The majority of market bearers are short-sellers, wait and see, and enter the market cautiously. As stocks continue to increase, the price of styrene may continue to decline. The acrylonitrile market is difficult to escape its fate. Due to the large influx of port cargo, the supply side is in surplus, which has impacted the domestic market and weakened the market. At the same time, some businesses have also played a role in helping profit-taking. The actual transaction price is currently around 17,500 yuan.
Although the butadiene market is rumbling about skyrocketing prices, but the downstream needs to buy, wait and see the market. Although the cost of crude oil prices continued to fluctuate at a high level and naphtha oil supply has brought support, but butadiene market is difficult to break, hard to see improvement in the short term, will be flat to end. At the same time, ABS supply is sufficient. The average operating rate of domestic ABS manufacturers is about 75%, and the daily output is about 6,000 tons. The supply is adequate. According to news from the external disk, Japan Toray Plastics' 330,000 tonne/year ABS plant in the North Sea of ​​Malaysia will increase the operating rate from 85% to 95% to 100% at the end of March.
. Styrolution's ABS unit in Baroda, India, is installing a new styrene-acrylonitrile resin production line to expand its on-site recombination capabilities. The ABS production capacity in Baroda will increase to 110,000 tons/year in 2014. Styrolution will launch a new ASA production line with an annual production capacity of 40,000 tons in Ulsan, South Korea, and it is expected to start production in July this year, which will weaken the rising power of the Asian ABS market and affect the domestic market.
Downstream demand has always been the most fundamental factor in the market. Since the beginning of the year, as the largest consumer of ABS appliances, the automotive industry, the market has shrunk to varying degrees, leading to a sharp decrease in ABS purchases, inhibiting the rise in ABS prices. The sluggish domestic demand and unfavorable exports from the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate have become a stumbling block for the development of the household appliance industry. According to the Ministry of Commerce’s monitoring data, in January, sales of 3,000 key retailers in China increased by 12.7% year-on-year; sales of home appliances fell by 10% year-on-year in thousands of key retailers, ranking the lowest among all categories. Sales volume and sales of household appliances to the countryside dropped by 32.5% and 25.7% respectively year-on-year. At the same time, after two years of capacity expansion, the refrigerator production capacity increased by more than 30%, the air conditioner capacity increase was 22%, and the washing machine capacity increase was 14%. The market has already overdrawn the consumption potential of the next year or even the following year. The market is gradually becoming saturated. In addition, the rapid rise in costs, especially raw materials, workers' wages soared, leaving companies unsustainable.
The impact of the debt crisis in Europe and the United States continues. Coupled with the turmoil in the Middle East, overseas orders for home appliances are still falling. Affected by this, household appliance manufacturing enterprises have already experienced underemployment. Some small OEMs have even shut down production. Even household electrical appliance companies with good export business have lowered their expectations for this year's export business. China Automobile Association released the latest statistics, the first two months of this year, the national auto market production and sales fell, inventory increased significantly, China's auto industry production and sales show signs of decline, there has been no negative growth in years. With the downturn in the auto market, stocks have increased significantly. According to statistics, from January to February, the production and sales of automobiles reached 2,903,500 units and 2,953,300 units, a year-on-year decrease of 4.93% and 5.96%. Auto market stocks increased significantly. In February, the difference between wholesale sales and actual sales of passenger cars reached 120,000, and the difference between wholesale sales and actual sales mostly became inventory. At the same time, the price of gasoline has risen sharply, causing potential user psychological pressure and, to a certain extent, affecting car sales.
At the same time, coupled with the worrisome economic situation at home and abroad, bad weather enveloped the ABS market. Although there are domestic policies to encourage the development of the real economy, it is difficult to quickly increase the enthusiasm of downstream businesses in the short term, and the demand recovery process is slow. In the absence of exceptionally favorable conditions, it is difficult for ABS to emerge from the downturn in the short term, and it is difficult to change the pattern of the market's slight downward exploration.
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