Industry survey|SUV "golden period" only three years left? 2020 or super car

Ten years ago, in domestically produced cars, cars dominated the market, accounting for more than 80% for a long period of time, while SUVs and MPVs were weak. Ten years later, the situation has changed dramatically. As the SUV quickly occupied the market and repeatedly squeezed the car share, the SUV ratio has now jumped to over 40%, while the car has been pulled down to around 50%.

According to this momentum, the share of SUV seems to soon exceed the car. However, in June 2018, the monthly sales of SUVs, which had been on the rise, showed a negative growth, allowing the industry to re-examine this market.

In fact, the reason why the industry is so sensitive to the SUV market is not unrelated to the continued decline in sales growth in this market in recent years. According to the data of the China Automobile Association, the sales volume of SUVs in 2015 increased by 52.4%, and fell to 44.6% in 2016, and further decreased to 13.3% in 2017. In the first half of 2018, SUV sales increased by 6.3% year-on-year, but compared with 16.8% sales growth in the same period last year, it has decreased by 10.5 percentage points.

The slowdown in SUV growth is already very clear. So, what are the reasons that led to this phenomenon? Is this just a temporary misfiring in the SUV market, or is it a trend? Does the SUV ratio have a chance to surpass the sedan? In the face of the current situation, how should car companies respond? In this article, the author will combine the recent research to analyze and discuss the above issues.

The car market is stabilizing and the base is large, and the slowdown in SUV growth has become a trend.

Recently, Gasgoo launched a survey on how you think about the slowdown in the growth of the SUV market in the past two years. The results show that although a small number of participants have chosen the option of “Slowing the growth rate of the SUV market is only a short-term phenomenon, and then there will be a reversal”, nearly 90% of the participants believe that “the slowdown in growth has become a trend. It will then stabilize."

The passenger vehicle market analyst of Gasgoing Automotive Research Institute agrees with this conclusion. He said that in the case of a large SUV base, the slowdown in growth is inevitable. At the same time, due to the slowdown in overall vehicle market growth and fuel consumption policy. Impact, this market growth will stabilize in the future. According to its forecast, unlike the previous high growth, the compound growth rate of SUV market share will drop to 3.2% from 2018 to 2020, and by 2021-2025, the corresponding compound growth rate may be only 1.5% .

Since 2007, the growth rate of SUVs has been much higher than that of the car segment. After years of rapid growth, the proportion of SUVs has increased rapidly and the volume has increased rapidly. On the basis of the existing base, the slowdown in growth is normal. This is basically consistent with the conclusions we have drawn from the relevant surveys. As you can see from the chart below, among the many options for the question “What do you think is the cause of the decline in SUV growth?”, 27% of the participants chose the “SUV market base” option.

Of course, we can also see that “the overall slowdown in the auto market” is also considered to be an important reason, with a 23% vote. As we all know, in recent years, the continued popularity of SUV models and the mad pursuit of consumers have made many brands earn a lot of money. But in the final analysis, this is the dividend that the Chinese auto market brings. Since 2000, China's auto industry has entered a stage of rapid growth. In 2009, the automobile sales exceeded the United States for the first time, and it became the world's largest auto market. After 2009, it continued to grow and continued to open the gap with the United States. The annual sales volume ranked first in the world for nine consecutive years. In this context, the SUV market has been able to achieve greater growth. Just as the growth of the overall auto market brings opportunities to the SUV market, the slowdown in auto market growth will inevitably have a certain "negative" impact on the market.

However, even if the SUV market base is large, the overall growth of the auto market will slow down. If the SUV can seize more of the market of the other two models, especially the sedan market, will the SUV market be different? There is indeed this possibility, but it is worth noting that the dominant position of SUV seems to be weakening relative to cars. In the above survey, the two options of “the price advantage of the car” and the “high pressure on the fuel consumption of the SUV” also won more than 15% of the votes of the participants, which is considered to be an important reason for the slowdown in SUV growth.

According to the requirements of the double-point policy, the future traditional auto companies may face more severe pressures on energy conservation and emission reduction. An industry analyst said in an interview with Gasshi Automotive that SUV (fuel) produces negative points, which is a risk for car companies. To compensate for the negative points it brings, the OEM needs to invest in additional costs, such as purchasing new energy points or increasing the layout of new energy vehicles, which will further widen the gap between the price and the price of the car, and the price-performance advantage of the car will be further highlighted.

In addition, he also pointed out that after rapid growth, the third- and fourth-tier cities are close to saturation, which has brought certain negative impacts on the entry-level SUV market. In addition, in the case of consumption upgrades, there are few high-end SUV products of independent brands, and the layout of joint-venture brand SUVs has not been rolled out, which also affects the sales performance of SUVs to a certain extent.

Only three years left in the SUV golden period? 2020 or super car

In this survey, for the question “How long do you think the golden period of SUV is?”, 42% of participants believe that there are still 1-3 years, 32% think that between 3-5 years, and choose more than 5 years. The proportion of participants is significantly smaller. This means that despite the slowdown in the SUV market, there are still certain growth expectations, and based on this, its proportion in domestic cars may still exceed that of cars.

According to the passenger vehicle market analyst of Gasgoing Automotive Research Institute, from the short-term narrow passenger vehicle market, the market share of SUV will be greatly resisted at 44%-45%, but around 2020, the market share of SUV is still Will exceed the car. “This is mainly due to the continuous development of joint venture brands in the layout of SUV products and consumers still have a high desire to purchase SUVs.”

However, although the SUV market is still relatively golden in the next few years, the performance of the segment will show different developments. According to the survey of “Which optimistic SUV market segment”, more than half of the participants chose a compact SUV, followed by a medium-sized SUV and a medium-sized SUV.

This is consistent with the sales situation in several major segments in the first half of this year. According to relevant data, in the first half of 2018, the cumulative sales volume of small SUVs was 905,000 units, and the cumulative sales volume increased by 4.6% year-on-year; the cumulative sales volume of compact SUVs was 2.24 million units, the cumulative sales volume increased by 4.4% year-on-year, and the cumulative sales volume of medium-sized SUVs was 1.12 million units. The cumulative sales volume increased by 17.5% year-on-year; the cumulative sales volume of large SUVs was 213,000 units, and the cumulative sales volume increased by 15.1% year-on-year.

The compact SUV is currently the most competitive and most popular SUV market segment among major auto companies. The above analysts said that from the perspective of various segments of SUV, compact will still occupy 60% of the market, but in the future, driven by factors such as consumption upgrades, medium and medium-sized SUVs will also have significant sales growth. With the subsidies gradually declining or even disappearing, pure electric vehicles will gradually become one of the main driving forces for the growth of small SUV sales. Some new energy vehicle models are known to have small SUVs as the main direction of future pure electric vehicles.

He also pointed out that with the continuous improvement of the requirements for double integrals and fuel consumption regulations, SUVs will also become the main target of electrification. The proportion of future electric and hybrid SUVs will continue to increase. It is expected to account for more than 30% of the total SUV in 2025, which will greatly change the current situation of high fuel consumption of SUVs.

In the article, Sun Yong also pointed out in his article that from the trend of the imported car market over the past few years, most multinational auto companies have reduced the displacement of SUVs as much as possible to reduce the average fuel consumption of imported cars. Some hybrid SUVs, even pure electric cars, share the fuel consumption of large displacement SUVs. In the future, domestically produced cars will be processed in the same way, and the product structure of the SUV market will also undergo major changes.

The competition among car companies is heating up, and the product structure needs to be adjusted.

In recent years, the hot market in the SUV has made the car companies busy, and constantly tilted the product line toward the SUV, especially the independent brand. As can be seen from the figure below, since 2014, the proportion of SUVs owned by independent auto companies has increased year by year, and in 2017 it has exceeded 60%. Undoubtedly, for a long period of time, the substantial growth of SUV models is the main reason for the sales of independent brands. However, companies that have SUV support have achieved good results, and if there is a lack of SUV models, the situation is just the opposite.

However, as the growth rate of the SUV market slows down, the internal competition in the future SUV market segment will intensify. Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Association, said in an interview with the media that although the current growth rate of the SUV market has slowed down significantly, the impact on the SUV product planning of the car companies will not be great. For the self-owned brands, the SUV market has been previously Most of the layout has been completed, although the joint venture brand's SUV market layout is relatively late, but its product strength is relatively strong, and it will certainly not give up this market.

It can be seen that foreign-funded and joint-venture brands are currently increasing the launch of SUV models: second-tier luxury brands are beginning to exert their strength in the compact SUV market. Volvo XC40 will be imported into China in the early stage and will be made in China in the future. Jaguar, which specializes in the sedan field, has also begun to make frequent efforts in the SUV market in recent years. In addition to the expansion of the traditional market, the first SUV model has also been launched in the new energy market segment. It is understood that E-PACE will be listed as the first domestic SUV model of Jaguar. FAW-Volkswagen's first SUV model will also introduce SAIC Volkswagen in the future...

Under this circumstance, those independent brands that rely mainly on SUVs will undoubtedly face enormous challenges, and market share is likely to be squeezed. This phenomenon has already been reflected. Judging from the current performance of car companies, compared with a single car that focuses on SUV models, Geely, SAIC and other car companies that choose SUVs and cars “walking on two legs” are more and more outstanding.

Behind the slowing SUV market is the Chinese auto market, which is becoming mature and stable. In this process, the process of survival of the fittest is inevitable. From the above, it can be seen that it is not a long-term solution to rely on a single product to “surprisingly win”. Car companies need “healthy” product layout and competing product competitiveness.