Recently, the non-ferrous metal index led the two cities, mainly due to the strong growth of lithium battery segments, especially cobalt concept stocks. Analysts pointed out that the supply of upstream cobalt ore is basically locked by middle and downstream processing enterprises, and there is less cobalt available in the market. The supply and demand pattern of the industry is still in a tight balance. After nearly two months of adjustment, the valuation of the cobalt plate returned to a reasonable range and the investment value appeared.
Leading enterprises increase market share
2017 is a lithium battery swim in the pool competition intensifies year, in addition to the overall price decline of cathode materials outside the industry, but the leading company shipped a significant increase in market share increased gradually.
In 2017, the growth rate of power lithium battery shipments was over 30%. The growth of shipments of leading companies such as Ningde Times, Guoxuan Hi-Tech and Yiwei Lithium Energy were all above 50%, but due to the decline in prices, there was no increase in profits. From the situation in the first quarter of 2018, this situation is still continuing.
The growth rate of ternary positive electrode shipments was 56%, and the price of raw materials was superimposed, especially the rise of cobalt price. The positive electrode materials enterprises generally achieved a rise in volume and price, and the performances of Shengsheng Technology and Shanshan Co., Ltd. doubled. Judging from the situation of the quarterly report in 2018, the situation of both volume and price has continued.
For the diaphragm industry, 2017 is also a year of intense price wars, especially the dry diaphragm, the price war is more intense, but the leading enterprises of wet diaphragm enterprises have achieved rapid growth by taking advantage of the performance advantages. The volume of goods has doubled and the performance has been extremely bright.
In this regard, Guotai Junan analysts said that in 2017, the downstream demand for power lithium battery is strong, the lithium battery and lithium battery materials industry shipments are generally considerable, but the competition is intensifying, and the overall competition will continue to increase in 2018, but the leading companies rely on technology and cost. Advantages will further increase market share.
Layout cobalt plate
The hottest in the new energy automotive industry is lithium batteries, and the most dazzling non-cobalt in the lithium battery industry. The cobalt plate has been raised and stabilized this year, showing a roller coaster trend. Combining the fundamentals of the industry, how do you deal with the strong rebound of the cobalt sector?
With the peak season in the third quarter approaching, demand for lithium cobalt oxide is expected to be repaired month by month. In the field of power batteries, high nickel is difficult to reverse. From 2018 to 2025, the high growth momentum of cobalt is used, and high nickel itself is necessary for the promotion of battery safety and consistency. Based on good demand prospects and resource scarcity, we continue to be optimistic about the strategic addition of cobalt to raw materials in the global new energy industry chain in 2018. Based on the above logic, the cobalt industry is expected to usher in a good layout opportunity in May.
In addition, since 2016, the demand for domestic lithium-ion equipment has continued to exceed expectations, mainly from the capacity competition of downstream battery companies; standing at the current position, the downstream battery companies' capacity expansion has slowed down and structural changes have occurred. Since the second half of 2017, international car companies have stepped into the new energy-making plan and redefine the industrial boundary, thus pushing the industrial demand more affected by the OEM procurement plan and new car launch. The equipment industry demand has begun to be affected by the terminal.
GF Securities analysts said that from a long-term perspective, the dual drive of market and policy has given the lithium battery industry a longer boom cycle. The high growth of the lithium battery equipment industry continued in the first quarter of this year, but the growth rate of various companies began to differentiate. The order delivery and confirmation rhythm is worthy of attention.
With the structural overcapacity of the production capacity and the competition of the battery enterprise into the stock competition stage, the growth rate of the capacity expansion of the battery enterprises will slow down from 2018, and structural changes will occur: the soft pack form and lithium battery recycling will form incremental demand.
As the vehicle giants announced plans for new energy vehicles, the huge investment scale redefines the battery and equipment market space, and the industrial demand began to be more traction by the terminal, and the production capacity and terminal consumption began to match. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to listed companies of lithium-ion equipment with outstanding product competitiveness and perfect customer structure.
Source: China Securities Journal
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