Rural Green Paper: China's grain production will achieve 13 consecutive increases

Rural Green Paper: China's grain production will achieve 13 consecutive increases

At the press conference of the Green Paper, Li Guoxiang, a researcher at the Institute of Rural Development of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and his research team predicted that the total grain output in 2016 would be 630 million tons, which would continue to increase production by 1.5% and achieve a 13-year increase.

Li Guoxiang said that many people in the society believe that this year's food production will be reduced because food prices have fallen, and the results of the survey released by the National Bureau of Statistics show another result. In 2016, the national rice planting intention increased by 0.3%, wheat increased by 0.4%, and corn decreased by 0.9%. Planting intentions indicate that the actual planting intentions are not as significant as many people think.

In 2016, cotton production is likely to reverse the trend of continuous production reductions since 2013. The total output is expected to reach 5.7 million tons, an increase of 1.5% over the previous year.

The Green Paper predicts that oil production will reach 35.9 million tons in 2016, an increase of about 1% over the previous year; sugar production will further decline to 122.5 million tons, a decrease of about 2% from the previous year; meat production will increase by 1% over the previous year, 2016 The annual pork output was 54.5 million tons, which was nearly 1% lower than the previous year; the output of aquatic products was close to 70 million tons, an increase of 3% over the previous year.

Li Guoxiang said that if the above forecasts are accurate, it will bring about high levels of food stocks, a large supply of some grain varieties, and the impact of the domestic food market on the international market. If food production cannot be adjusted in time, domestic food prices will face increasing downward pressure.

In recent years, the prices of international agricultural products have fluctuated drastically. China's imports are relatively large, and the domestic impact is obvious, especially the import of feed grains, cotton and cotton yarn. According to the data from 2015, if cereals, potatoes, and beans are included, according to the size of the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s grain imports are 120 million tons. If corn and distiller's grains are added, it is about 130 million tons. The output is 6.2-630 million tons. The import shock should be very obvious. The expected appreciation of the US dollar in 2016 and the adjustment of domestic purchasing and storage policies may be beneficial to alleviate the import pressure of bulk agricultural products and livestock products, but it remains to be seen.

We have found that the current production of pigs and pork production are fluctuating significantly. Our pig prices are fluctuating. One of the important reasons is free-range breeding. In recent years, the number of large-scale breeding has increased significantly, but the pig production or the pork market is still fluctuating significantly. The management may not solve the problem of market stability, but also need to find other ways out. On the whole, in terms of supply and demand, in recent years, our country has adjusted from domestic production, hopes to improve the relationship between agricultural products, and hopes to change the way of agricultural development. However, the adjustment of international agricultural structure and the impact on the international market have led to the shrinking of our agriculture. We think this is worthy of attention.

As of this year, the Rural Green Book has been released for 24 consecutive years and is released every April. The Green Paper has become a tool for understanding Chinese agriculture, rural areas and farmers.

(Original title: Rural Green Paper: This year's grain output will continue to increase prices and face greater downward pressure)