·Mechanical industry: economic development basically stable structural adjustment progress

Abstract: On February 11, 2015, the press conference of the economic operation of the machinery industry in 2014 was held at the China Machinery Industry Federation. Chen Bin, Executive Vice President, informed the development characteristics of the machinery industry in 2014 and the adjustment of industrial structure. New progress and forecast of the economic operation trend of the machinery industry in 2015: The annual value added of the machinery industry and the growth rate of the main business income is around 8%, the profit growth rate is around 10%, and the export growth rate is around 6%.
In 2014, the international environment was complex and changeable, and the domestic reform and development and stability tasks were arduous and arduous. The smooth operation of the machinery industry was facing a severe test. In this context, the whole industry conscientiously implemented the central government's work requirements on “stable growth, transfer mode, and structural adjustment”, actively adapted to the new normal of economic development, and achieved moderate growth in major economic indicators such as production and efficiency. Stable, structural adjustment and transformation and upgrading continue to advance.
Looking forward to 2015, there is still downward pressure on the economic growth rate, and it is difficult to significantly improve the overall external environment of the industry development. The machinery industry will fully implement the spirit of the Third and Fourth Central Committees of the 18th and 18th Central Committee, conscientiously implement the decision-making and deployment of the Central Economic Work Conference, adhere to the general tone of work in a stable and progressive manner, promote the adjustment and upgrading of the industry structure, and realize the operation of the industry. Improve quality and efficiency.
I. Characteristics of the development of machinery industry in 2014 (I) The overall operation of the industry is stable, the growth rate of main indicators is higher than that of the national industry. The growth rate of added value is higher than the national average. The added value of machinery industry in 2014 increased by 10% year-on-year. The annual growth rate is 0.9 percentage points, but it is 1.7 percentage points higher than the national average industrial growth rate (8.3%) in the same period. It has made positive contributions to the overall goal of “steady growth” in the national industry.
2. High-speed growth of main business income In 2014, the machinery industry realized a total of 22.2 trillion yuan of main business income, up 9.4% over the previous year. The growth rate dropped by 4.4 percentage points from the previous year, and the growth rate in the second half of the year dropped month by month. The trend is still higher than the national industrial growth rate (6.96%) for the same period of 2.45 percentage points.
3. The output of most products has increased. Among the 64 major mechanical products announced by the National Bureau of Statistics in 2014, there were 46 kinds of output growth, accounting for 71.9%, and 18 kinds of production decreased, accounting for 28.1%. Specific analysis shows that products that are more closely related to consumption upgrades, such as large-scale agricultural machinery, environmental pollution prevention equipment, passenger cars (especially SUVs and MPVs), have better production and sales; and typical investment products, such as engineering Machinery, metallurgical equipment, commercial vehicles, etc., production and sales are weak.
The output of large tractors was 69,900 units, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%.
The output of CNC machine tools was 260,900 units, an increase of 14.78% year-on-year.
According to the statistics of the Machinery Industry Power Generation Equipment Center and the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the output of power generation equipment in 2014 was 133 million kilowatts, an increase of 5.2% year-on-year, and the output for more than 100 million kilowatts for 9 consecutive years. The production and sales of automobiles were 23.72 million and 23.49 million, respectively, up 7.3% and 6.9% respectively, and both production and sales exceeded 23 million, a record high, ranking first in the world for the sixth consecutive year.
(II) Profits maintain double-digit growth In 2014, the growth rate of economic benefits of machinery industry was always faster than production and sales. The accumulated total profit for the year was 1.56 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.6% over the previous year. The growth rate dropped by 5 percentage points from the previous year and 1.2 percentage points higher than the growth rate of the main business income during the same period. The profit margin of the main business income was 7.02%, an increase of 0.08 percentage points over the same period of the previous year. The total tax revenue for the year was 843.8 billion yuan, an increase of 8.2% over the previous year; the loss of enterprises was 10.8%, an increase of 1.24 percentage points over the previous year; the loss of loss-making enterprises increased by 9.9%.
(3) The foreign trade situation is better than that of the previous year. In 2014, the total import and export volume of the machinery industry reached US$725.5 billion, an increase of 8.1% year-on-year, and the growth rate accelerated by 4.4 percentage points over the previous year. Among them, exports were 402.3 billion US dollars, up 8.0%, and the growth rate was 1.8 percentage points higher than the previous year; imports were 323.2 billion US dollars, up 8.2%, and the growth rate was 7.5 percentage points higher than the previous year. The annual trade surplus reached a record high of 79.1 billion US dollars, accounting for 20.7% of the country's foreign trade surplus.
(IV) The growth rate of fixed asset investment continued to fall. In 2014, the machinery industry completed a total of 4.5 trillion yuan in fixed assets investment, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%. The growth rate was lower than that of the whole society and manufacturing fixed assets investment by 3 and 0.8 percentage points respectively. In the year, the growth rate of the machinery industry dropped by 4.5 percentage points, and the growth rate has dropped for three consecutive years. From the trend of the month by month, the growth rate in the first half of the year has briefly rebounded, and the overall trend has shown a downward trend since the second half of the year.
(V) Inventory pressures rise, prices continue to be sluggish In the market environment where the contradiction between supply and demand is increasingly prominent, the growth rate of finished products in the machinery industry in 2014 continued to be at a relatively high level, and the overall situation showed an accelerated trend. The annual inventory of machinery industry increased by 8.6% year-on-year, 1.5 percentage points higher than the same period of the previous year; the finished products increased by 14.9% year-on-year, 7.1 percentage points higher than the same period of last year, indicating that the sustained market weakness has formed a certain sales of mechanical products. pressure. Affected by this, the price index of machinery industry products continued the trend of low level operation in the previous year. By the end of the year, the cumulative price index of machinery products had been lower than 100% for 35 consecutive months.
(VI) Weak market demand and weak order growth In 2014, the cumulative orders of key enterprises in the machinery industry continued to slump. After the second quarter, the growth rate dropped significantly and went down month by month. The cumulative order value from January to December increased by only 3.55% year-on-year. It has dropped significantly from the previous year. The lack of growth in orders indicates that the lack of demand will remain one of the important challenges facing the machinery industry in 2015.
II. New progress in industrial restructuring Under the influence of the market reversal mechanism, in 2014, the “transformation and upgrading” and “structural adjustment” of the machinery industry continued to advance, and the ability of machinery enterprises to adapt to market changes continued to improve, and the endogenous development momentum continued to increase. New progress has been made in structural adjustment.
(I) Industry structure adjustment conforms to market demand In the new development environment, the division of machinery industry is more significant. The growth rate of equipment providing equipment for real estate, steel, coal and other investment fields continues to be low; while the development speed of sub-sectors that serve the people's livelihood, such as automobiles, refrigeration and air-conditioning, environmental protection equipment, basic parts, instruments and meters, has accelerated significantly. The structure of the machinery industry industry is adjusting in the direction of more adapting to market demand.
(II) New progress in independent innovation In order to meet the challenges of the decline in demand for traditional products, and to meet the new opportunities brought about by the adjustment and upgrading of related industries, the research and development of new products and processes in the machinery industry has become more active, and the concept of innovation-driven development has gradually become popular among the people. The research and development results gradually appeared. Mainly manifested in:
The number of projects that have won high-level awards has risen: In recent years, the number of projects that have received high-level awards for technological innovations and technological advancements in the machinery industry has risen markedly. The first-class and special prizes have risen from about 20 per year to more than 30. In 2014, this A momentum is even more pronounced.
New achievements in high-end equipment independent innovation: large-scale nuclear power, hydropower, thermal power and wind power equipment, UHV power transmission and transformation equipment, natural gas long-distance pipeline pressure station equipment and other high-end equipment autonomy level has been significantly improved.
The development of the “three basics” field continued to advance: key components began to accelerate the momentum of independent innovation, and high-end hydraulic systems, bearings, numerical control systems, and special special materials have successively achieved results. For example, the LNG low-temperature high-pressure casting ball valve was successfully developed, breaking the monopoly of foreign products in this field.
The concept of customer service as the purpose and the development of service-oriented manufacturing is clearly deepened, and the efficiency of the industry is improved by improving service levels.
(III) The endogenous development momentum of private enterprises continued to increase. In 2014, private enterprises realized the main business income of 12.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.9%, higher than the average growth rate of the machinery industry by 1.5 percentage points, accounting for the main business income of the machinery industry. The proportion increased to 57.3%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points over the previous year. Private enterprises realized a total profit of 757.4 billion yuan, an increase of 7.7% over the previous year, and the proportion of profits realized in the machinery industry has reached 53.8%.
(IV) The regional structure continued to adjust the regional structure of the machinery industry to the expected direction and continued to adjust to the policy expectations. In 2014, the main business income in the eastern, central and western regions was 13.6 trillion yuan, 4.7 trillion yuan and 2.0 trillion yuan respectively, up 8.3%, 11.4% and 12.3% respectively over the previous year. The growth rate in the central and western regions continued to grow fast. In the east. The proportion of the central and western regions in the machinery industry increased by 0.7 percentage points over the previous year.
(V) Increase in the added value of foreign trade exports On the basis of the significant increase in foreign trade of machinery industry in 2014, the trade structure was also optimized, and general trade exports were significantly better than processing trade exports. The general value-added export value of the year was US$238.3 billion, up 11.2% year-on-year; while the processing trade export was US$126.6 billion, up only 1.99% year-on-year. The proportion and growth of general trade export volume greatly exceeds processing trade, indicating that the added value of China's mechanical products export is steadily increasing.
In short, in the context of China's tight macroeconomic situation in 2014, while the machinery industry achieved steady growth, transformation and upgrading and structural adjustment were also actively promoted.
III. Forecast of Economic Operation Trend of Machinery Industry in 2015 (I) Favorable Factors First of all, the stability of the policy environment is conducive to the industrial restructuring. The Central Economic Work Conference at the end of last year clarified the economic policy tone of “stable and progressive” and released information to maintain the continuity and stability of the current policy, providing a stable policy environment for the development of the industry.
Second, the state has introduced some measures to stabilize growth. Since October last year, the National Development and Reform Commission has successively approved infrastructure construction projects such as roads, airports, railways, water conservancy and transmission projects for eight consecutive times. The demand for investment machinery products in this year should be warmed up.
Third, the stability of commodity prices is conducive to the cost reduction and efficiency of the machinery industry. Complex international political factors have led to a gradual decline in the prices of commodities such as oil, natural gas, iron ore, and non-ferrous metals, which in turn will benefit the machinery industry's cost reduction and efficiency gains.
(2) Unfavorable factors First, there is still downward pressure on the macro economy. Overall, although the domestic economic trend is generally stable, the downward pressure still exists, and the weak market demand is unlikely to improve significantly in the short term.
Second, foreign trade risks and uncertainties have increased. The international economy is still in the adjustment period after the financial crisis. Although the US economy has recently released positive signals, the economic prospects of the Eurozone, Japan and some emerging economies are still not optimistic. Therefore, the international market demand is unlikely to be significantly boosted.
Third, the cost of human resources, environment, resources and other factors has risen. In the past, the low-cost advantage was weakening, and the prices of human resources, environment, resources and other factors continued to rise, resulting in the weakening of the traditional comparative advantage of domestic enterprises.
(III) Development forecast in 2015 The development of machinery industry is greatly affected by the macro environment. Although China's macroeconomic development has not changed in the long-term fundamentals, economic development is undergoing phased adjustment, and deep-seated contradictions in industrial accumulation are gradually exposed. The complexity of the situation cannot be underestimated.
Comprehensive analysis, it is expected that China's machinery industry will continue its downward trend in 2014 at the beginning of 2015, but the downturn will gradually slow down and it is expected to stabilize in the middle of the year. It is expected to achieve growth slightly below 2014 but still in the medium range. Specifically, the annual value added of the machinery industry and the growth rate of the main business income is around 8%, the profit growth rate is around 10%, and the export growth rate is around 6%.
2015 is the last year of the implementation of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” for the machinery industry. The domestic and international environment facing the industry is more complicated, the contradiction of overcapacity is prominent, the market demand environment is tightening, and uncertain factors are increasing. Mechanical enterprises should fully realize that the recent difficulties are the accumulation of structural contradictions for many years, and are the concentrated expression of the contradiction between overcapacity and rising cost rigidity. In the face of severe challenges, the whole industry should vigorously promote structural adjustment, and realize transformation and upgrading as an important way to solve the current and future development difficulties of the industry. In the new year, the main focus of attacking high-end and sturdy foundations is to drive innovation, integration and green development as the main orientation, and fully release vitality and creativity under the conditions of market economy. The beginning lays a good foundation.

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